The president (PT) and the former president (PL) are technically tied as leaders in rejection among the presidential cited in, held on Tuesday (10) and Wednesday (11).
Lula appears numerically ahead of all other candidates, with 46% of respondents saying that they would not vote at all in the politician in the first round of elections for president in 2026. In turn, Jair Bolsonaro, currently ineligible until 2030 and defendant in the Supreme Court (STF) for the charge of leading a coup plot in late 2022, appears 43% rejection.
The difference between the two, therefore, is within the error margin for the total sample, which is two percentage points for more or less. Datafolha interviewed 2,004 voters in 136 cities.
All family members of Jair Bolsonaro cited in the survey have rejection rates above 30%: 32% say they do not vote at all in licensed federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP), 31% reject Flávio, current senator for Rio de Janeiro, and 30%, Michelle, former first lady.
Fernando Haddad, current Finance Minister, appears with 29%rejection, followed by the governors of Paraná, Ratinho Jr. (PSD), with 19%, from Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo), with 18%, from Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil), with 15%, and São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), with 15%.
President Lula has a greater rejection than Jair Bolsonaro among men, with 49% rejection against 39% of the PL politician. Among women, an important segment for the petista, the president’s rejection is 44%, compared to 46% of Bolsonaro. The maximum margin of error per gender is 3 percentage points.
By age, Lula’s rejection is numerically smaller among the younger ones, but on the same level as Bolsonaro. Among voters in this group, from 16 to 24 years old, the petista has a rejection of 41%, against 40% of Bolsonaro.
The greatest distance between politicians, with the greatest advantage for Bolsonaro, appears between age groups 25 to 34 and 35 to 44 years. In the first case, they would not vote for Lula at all 49% of respondents. The value for Bolsonaro drops to 38%.
In the next group, 35 to 44, Lula’s rejection is 50%, compared to 42% of Bolsonaro.
The difference drops in the following age groups, with rejection of 46% and 45% for Lula and Bolsonaro between those 45 to 59 years old and 44% and 47% for those with over 60. The margin of error by age is five percentage points to plus or less.
Regarding education, the rejection of the president is lower among those who have elementary school (32%). In the case of Bolsonaro, the value is 48%. Half (50%) of those who have high school would not vote at all in Lula. 39% would do the same with Bolsonaro. In higher education, Lula has 52% rejection compared to 43% of Bolsonaro.
The margin of error is five percentage points for more or less among elementary and higher education interviewees and three points for those in high school.
By family income, Lula’s performance is better among the poorest, with the lowest rejection between those who earn up to two minimum wages (39%). In this group, the margin of error is 3 percentage points.
By region, Lula has less rejection compared to Bolsonaro in the Northeast, with 31% compared to 53%. The petista’s rejection is 50% or more in the rest of the country: 51% in the Southeast, 54% in the south and 50% in the Midwest/North.
Bolsonaro has 43% rejection in the Southeast, 29% in the south and 37% in the Midwest/North.
The margin of error by region of the country is 3 percentage points to the Southeast, 6 to the south and Midwest/North and 4 to the Northeast.
In the religious spectrum, 61% of evangelicals reject Lula. The value drops to 41% between Catholics. In the case of Bolsonaro, the values are, respectively, 25% and 47%.
The margin of error for these segments is 3 percentage points for Catholics and 4 for evangelicals.
