There are already dozens of attacks on each side, but the military successes are quite different. Some even talk about a “war”, all of which seem to want to advance to a negotiation. All less one
Israel attacks Iran, who counterattacks with the announcement of hundreds of missiles, then returning to defensive position and seeing his own territory burning-in the cover image you see a man looking at an oil storage center swallowed by the flames in Tehran. Since Friday dawn that there is a stop and response logic in the Middle East, with the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatola Ali Khamenei, has already used the word “war.”
Both sides have a goal, points to CNN Portugal Miguel Baumgartner, specialist in International Relations. And one objective stems from the other, he says, indicating that the main objective of Iran is, since the establishment of the Islamic Republic, in 1979, the destruction of the State of Israel.
“This regime has as its main objective the destruction of the State of Israel. It is completely against the state of Israel,” says Miguel Baumgartner, stressing that “Iran is not a victim in this situation.”
Iran continues to have its own count that points until 2040 to destroy “everything left” from the state of Israel. Judging by the latest acts seems to be far from getting it.
On the Israeli side there are no major announcements of anticipation, but rather specific and highly directed attacks, and that have already caused death to a large part of the Iranian military summit. On there, Iran announces hundreds and hundreds of missiles divided by various vacancies, but fails to announce the destruction of specific targets.
Each of the photographs below that has an incarnate rectangle on top symbolizes a high dead commander. These include Mohammad Bagheri or Hossein Salami, respectively armed forces chief and leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard’s body.
The IDF eliminated the head of the feedback intelligence department and commander of the ground-ground missile system of the Revolutionary Guards in Iran
More than 20 military commanders of the Iranian regime has been eliminated
It can now be confirmed that in the opening blow of Operation, “Rub Bring”, the Head of the Intelligence Division at the General Staff of the Armed Forces in Iran and the Commander of the System…
– Israel Defense Forces (@idfonline)
But on the side there is also a goal that is not that different. Israel does not want to destroy a state, but wants to destroy a regime. The one of the Aiatolas, of course, who since 1979 changed the political chess of the Middle East, ending a scenario of a western Iran and a friend of the United States.
“This is not only a special preventive operation for the nuclear issue. This is just a pretext [de Israel] for a direct war. Not against Iran, but against this political regime, ”says Miguel Baumgartner, noting that Telavive’s official narrative is that the action could not wait because the enemy was close to being able to make a nuclear bomb.
A war that then matters to Israel, of course, but also to Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates or Bahrain. It is that, as Miguel Baumgartner recalls, these Arabian peninsula monarchies depend strongly on trade, so their livelihood could be in danger with a nuclearly armed.
But it is also a war that matters to the United States. Even though almost all members of the Trump administration have already ensured that they have not participated in any attack, the destruction or weakening of a threat like Iran is naturally well-seized. Moreover, the US President has already implied that Tehran’s absence of will to reach a nuclear agreement may have precipitated these attacks. The same Donald Trump has even warned that Israelite attacks may still be worse if this agreement is not, however, achieved.
And this position is easier to take on a scenario where Israel seems to be in a clear advantage. Lieutenant General Marco Serronha recalls military capacity, but also the involvement of information services, namely Mossad, which was crucial in the first attacks, smuggling weapons within the Iranian territory itself.
“The United States knew the situation. I don’t know if they knew exactly the time, but this situation has no other way but to return to the negotiation table,” says the military.
This is because “Iran is in a situation of much fragility” that not even the consecutive missile releases hide. “It is very likely that [o Irão] Do not have the military support of Russia, which is a strategic partner. In this contingency, there will be no other alternative to manifest that it is available to return to the negotiation table, ”he adds.
The problem, points out Marco Serronha, is that Israel may not have this same disposition, as “it has a very clear strategic goal for this war.” A goal that is divided into two, but contribute both to “a more pleasant situation in the future.”
Degradating the capacity for nuclear weapons production and the Iranian army itself is one of these goals, and “these capabilities are being gradually degraded.”
The other goal marries Miguel Baumgartner’s understanding: a change of regime in Iran, which “may be harder to achieve, but will make the Ayatollas regime very complex.”
“There are great divisions within the Iranian elite and there is a very notorious split between religious elites and military elites.” The answers given to Israel, considered weak on the civil and religious side, can be part of the cause for this.
And it is in this scenario that Marco Serronha understands that Iran has no other hypothesis other than the return to the negotiation table. “Generally speaking, with the exception of Israel, both United States and Iran want to negotiate again,” he reiterates, highlighting the importance of an agreement that, without a change of regime, will never be totally satisfactory either. [queremvoltaranegociar”reiteradestacandoaimportânciadeumacordoquesemumamudançaderegimetambémnuncaserátotalmentesatisfatória
Given this scenario, and with the two experts seeing Israel less susceptible to these negotiations, it is concluded that it is on the side of Telavive that is at least at least the military advantage.
For now we can wait for the continuation of mutual attacks. Israel announced that right away in the early hours of attacks on the voice of his Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. Iran will continue to say that it will respond to each attack, but it seems to be little more than rhetoric, as the Israeli forces even take advantage of the moments when missiles fall into their territory to show images of their own operations.
