[RESUMO] Since 2017, with the approval of successive changes in electoral legislation, a whirlwind has been sweeping the Brazilian party system. New rules, such as the performance clause and the end of the coalitions, harshly affected small parties, leading to a wave of mergers, federations or even disappearance of acronyms. As a result, fewer parties have gained representation in the House and Senate, reducing the fragmentation of the legislature in Brazil, which was the largest in the world.
Accompany the whirlwind of transformations of. Few journalists or political scientists have safely described the recent changes, the speed they presented.
From 2017, 13 parties changed their names, five disappeared because they were incorporated by others, and two new subtitles (Union and PRD) were created from mergers. In general, Brazil, which reached 35 distinct subtitles in 2015, should now move on 24.
The PTB, which has already housed, João Goulart and Leonel Brizola, when merging with the Patriot to form the PRD (Democratic Renewal Party) in 2023.
A troubled and still uncertain fusion of PSDB and we can and a federation between Union and PP are underway.
. For three decades, he was a protagonist of the presidential election (with two wins by Fernando Henrique Cardoso in 1994 and 1998, and the second round dispute in the following four elections).
In addition, it elected significant countertops in Congress and won a significant number of state governments and state governments. The symbol of this was São Paulo, where the party elected the governor seven times in a row between 1994 and 2018.
The governor of Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite, one of the main toucan leaders ,. The governor of Pernambuco,
The PSDB, which even elect 99 federal deputies in 1998, currently has only 13, a smaller bench than Somos (15 deputies).
An eventual merger, with Somos or other acronyms, in view of the current impasse, could ensure that the new formed subtitle exceeded 2026 the minimum vote to ensure access to the party fund and time of electoral propaganda. If we think of the central place that toucans occupied until the mid -2010s,
The other big current change. The two subtitles have important leaders and performed well in last year’s municipal elections. Therefore, they had a high probability of surpassing, on their own, the performance rules stipulated for the next election, which determine access to public resources.
What would have led, therefore, to opt for the Federation? It is alimmented in the electoral dispute, similarly as it occurred with the old coalitions, adding TV time and also the votes at the time of calculating the electoral quotient. In the federation, however, the parties will be together for the next four years, not just during the elections.
We know little about the main motivations of national leaders. The fact is that the new organization, because of its size, will become a key piece in the 2026 presidential dispute. Another benefit is the concentration of campaign resources; The Federation will be the group with more funds from the Electoral Fund.
Union and PP together, they have the largest bench in the Federal Chamber (109 deputies). It is a significant number, in the scenario of high party dispersion that characterizes Brazilian democracy. To get an idea since the end of the dictatorship, only two parties have surpassed this brand at the polls, both in 1986; The PMDB with 250 deputies and the PFL with 119.
In general, since 2019, the reduction in the number of parties with seat in the legislature and the increase of elected representatives of some subtitles are reduced. This process is happening faster than I imagined a few years ago.
To understand the compaction of the party system, however, we have to remember the opposite process of gradual expansion of fragmentation for three decades.
In the 2018 elections. Thirty parties won vacancies – the PT, the largest of them, had only 56 elected deputies.
A simple exercise can give you an idea of the size of the dispersal of power in the legislature started in 2019. Imagine a situation in which two deputies are randomly in the House corridor. The probability that they belong to different parties is 95%.
Why did party fragmentation reach such high levels in Brazil? We know that humans in general, and politicians in particular, react to incentives. And roughly, from redemocratization to 2018, the rules of the electoral system have offered some incentives for many politicians to prefer to work in smaller parties.
In Brazil, politicians make their careers oriented to the states and the cities where they were elected. In a scenario of more than 30 registered parties, the incentive to join a small one was significant.
In a lower caption, there was a possibility of being a leader at the state or municipal level, participating in the selection of candidates’ lists, having influence on the distribution of resource of the party fund and access to the radio and television campaign, bargain with major acronyms to participate in electoral coalitions and governments. Not to mention that the artifice of the proportional elections allowed the victory of deputies with reduced vote.
Changes in party and electoral legislation, approved in the second half of 2010, have affected small parties. The incentives that existed for them were over. Currently, a parliamentarian who chooses to stay in one of them can have great difficulties in electing himself.
The first change in electoral legislation that impacted small parties was the performance clause. Since 2018, the acronyms have to obtain a minimum vote in the elections for the House of Representatives to have access to two precious political resources: the party fund and access to radio and television time.
The percentage began at 1.5% in 2018, went to 2% in 2022, will be 2.5% in 2026 and will reach a definitive level of 3% in 2030. Failure to comply with these goals does not lead to loss of registration, but implies passing four years to bread and water.
In 2018, 14 parties could not exceed the performance clause. In 2022, the number reached 15. Some They were incorporated by larger parties (HS and PSC to Somos; O Pros to Solidarity), others decided to participate in federations (Network, PCdoB, Citizenship and PV). There are also those who survive without the resources of the party fund, cases, for example, the new, DC, PCB, PCO, PSTU and UP.
The end of the proportional election coalitions has had a strong impact on the chances of the smaller acronyms to elect representatives. The measure came into force in the 2020 claims and significantly reduced the total parties represented in the city councils, especially in small towns, which elect up to nine councilors. In 2022, the number of subtitles that elected deputies fell in all states.
In this scenario, Brazilian legislators invented the Institute of the Party Federation, an intermediate mechanism between the coalition (a strictly electoral alliance) and the merger (the extinction of the original parties and the creation of a new caption).
Federated parties are required to stay together for four years (in joy and sadness). They should remain as a unique entity in legislatures and compete together in all states in the general elections and subsequent municipal elections.
The federation was created to ensure a breath of the small parties. Remember that the vote on federated subtitles is added to the calculations of the performance clause. For this reason, the surprise of two right-wing parties (Union and PP, which are not small) have chosen to use it.
. The number of registered parties fell, rushed the requests for creation of new ones and party dispersion returned to the 1990s standard. Party representation in the House fell almost half, 30 acronyms with seats in 2019 to 16 now. It is noteworthy that compaction has happened more intensely to the right of the party spectrum.
Today three right -wing party benches reach almost half of the House of Representatives. There are 109 of the Union-PP Federation, 90 of the PL and 40 of Republicans, totaling 47% (out of a total of 513 vacancies). Small subtitles, which have already had a significant number of chairs, were gradually incorporated by the largest.
Next year, during the March party window, when parliamentarians will be able to change acronym without risk of losing their mandate, individual migrations should be towards the largest subtitles, which already have more resources from the electoral fund and radio and television propaganda time.
We have no idea what Congress composition will look like in 2026. In any case, it is high the likelihood that the House and Senate have less subtitles, and the party power is more concentrated.
In writing this text, I realized that this whole movement of party reconfiguration is occurring exclusively in the political elite. Exchanges of names of subtitles, incorporations, mergers and federations are the result of choices made by leaders in search of survival.
The effect is a “partisan market” reconfigured, more concentrated, with less offer and some subtitles that have undergone an attempt to reposition the brand.
Currently, citizens who do not live in politics have little interest in parties. Although full of party fund resources, subtitles find it difficult to attract militants and people willing to run for elections. Challenge that also reaches the
It remains to be seen if this new offer of the party system – but lean, with renowned products – will be sufficient to arouse the interest of voters.
