Defections in the scope of the Government Coalition and the just over a year for the presidential elections, it has been the focus of attention. Beyond the factors that lead to defections – – there are issues related to the influence of massive control of that political field on congress and on the subnational level, and how this control impacts the presidential election.
The effects of elections on one level-Presidential-on the others, and vice versa, is a classic theme of political science (coattails effects in jargon). In Brazil, the election of a mayor impacts the subsequent election of federal deputies of the same party in the municipality in increasing 30%,. In this case it is a reverse coattail,
The size of the presidential election impacts the presidential – although the process is two -way – through various channels. The main and direct in the country is through party financing (which is proportional to bench), whose magnitude has no parallels in other countries, and can be channeled to the presidential election. The second is through the indirect impact of the campaign itself in the states, affecting the voter’s feeling in polarized contexts. The effect is greater among voters without party loyalties or personalistic.
The massive control of the center-right and radical right on Congress will impact the presidential election and is a theme for future investigations. The asymmetry is clear. In addition to the PT holding only 13% of Congress chairs, there are no representatives in the benches of six Brazilian states, including in a northeastern state, Sergipe. In nine states, the party has only one representative. Aside from Piauí – an outlier – small state where it holds 40%of the bench, the party has a little significant presence in the benches of large states such as São Paulo (13, 9%), Rio de Janeiro (8.2%), Bahia (17%), Minas Gerais (18.5%). The second largest left -wing party – PDT – saw its bench reducing the only 3.4% of the chamber by 2024.
The newly created União Brasil Federation will have higher or much higher countertops, to 20%in 19 states. In three of these will have a large majority, reaching 75% in Acre. The has nine states in which it holds at least 1/5 of the electorate, and reaches 50% in Mato Grosso and almost 40%
in Santa Catarina.
In the municipal level, the PT owns only 4.5% of the country’s municipalities. Increased the number of municipalities in 2024 (252) —Menos than double the PL, compared to 2020, in a lower proportion than other parties. He no longer ruled any capital in 2020, and started to do so only in one (fortress). The big winner of the elections was the PSD (800+ municipalities). Together PSD, PL, MDB and União-PP govern almost 3,000 municipalities. The aggregate effect on the future composition of the Chamber will be expressive due to the budgetary.
Paradoxically, in this scenario, reelection, the conditions of governability would be criticism in the post-2026, in which current pathologies will probably be accentuated.
Gift Link: Did you like this text? Subscriber can release seven free hits from any link per day. Just click on F Blue below.
