In, with ongoing rocket exchanges and drones, which caused dead and dozens injured on both sides on Friday morning (13/6).
Why did he choose it at the moment to hit his nuclear program? Can the conflict?
“Israel has chosen to attack now because it thought it was the ideal time to neutralize Iran’s threat, since in its attacks last October, it had downgraded the capabilities of Iranian air defense. The government, therefore, appeared to be the time with the lowest risk to destroy as much of the Iranian nuclear capacity as possible, including scientists and senior army officers, “former Deputy Foreign Minister Matthew Briga said in VIMA.
Israel has announced that it will continue operations against Iran in the coming days. “So it’s up to her if she wants to have a real escalation, choosing to target the US Army, USA facilities in or oil targets in the vagina,” Braise adds. “Something that will inevitably lead to the outbreak of the Great Regional War. We do not know for the time being to what extent Iranian retaliation will reach. “
Iran’s nuclear and Trump
The irony is that today (15/6), the 6th round of US-Iran talks on the Iranian nuclear program were to be held. “The president had stated that he did not want Israel to attack Iran.
Indeed, when she began talking to Tehran about her nuclear program, she surprised and displeased the Israeli prime minister, “commented Braisa as opinions are diverted for her attack on Iran.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US had not provided any support to Israel and that President Trump had requested in recent days a peaceful solution to the Iranian nuclear program. Earlier, the US Foreign Minister had opposed Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear.
“In addition, he had even taken surprise with his direct talks with Houtha and Hamas,” Braise continues.
“Finally, let’s not forget that Trump was hoping to win a new nuclear deal with Iran, which is less likely after Israeli attacks.” On the other hand, the fact that the US government did not criticize Israel’s attacks, states that “it is very likely that President Trump would eventually decide to simply consent to something predetermined.”
Can Israel use more devastating weapons?
“Yes, Israel’s attack on nuclear and military infrastructure and Iran’s military and military personnel have long been expected, however, they are surprised by the breadth, depth and potential devastating side effects at both international and regional level,” he said.
“In addition, without sufficient international pressure from American and European allies, Israel may feel that it has the free use of more destructive weapons, which could also cause nuclear leakage, with huge consequences for humans and the environment in Iran. It seems that there is very little external influence to affect Israel’s decision -making at the moment. “
Risk of broader ignition
A nuclear agreement is now very difficult to achieve, the Iranian academic continues and a possible escalation “there is a risk of drawing the world into one. This also confirms the failure of Iran’s military establishment, intelligence and intelligence services to understand how exposed. Now we have to wait and see if the Iranians have some “paper” to play that the Israelis do not know. “
“This escalation marks a dangerous and unprecedented development,” Iranian professor at the National University of Australia in Kamerra, Alam Saleh, notes. “Immediate attacks between Israel and Iran are destroying long -term deterrence rules and there is a risk for a wider regional ignition,” he continues.
“Israel’s decision to launch immediate attacks obviously creates an extremely destabilizing precedent. The risk of uncontrolled retaliation is now acute. Any such conflict will inevitably attract non -state agents associated with Iran (Hezbollah, Hamas, regional militias), destabilize global energy markets and could even seduce war, such as the US.
How Israeli attacks reinforce Iran’s nuclear
However, Israel’s attempt to downgrade Iran’s nuclear program through air raids “cannot lead to strategic elimination,” Saleh said.
“The Iranian program is extremely scattered, reinforced and designed to withstand such attacks, which can put temporary obstacles – delaying the progress of uranium enrichment and eliminating scientific staff – but cannot erase its technical knowledge or long -term intention.”
Inside Iran, historically, similar attacks “have deepened Tehran’s determination to pursue a nuclear deterrent capacity. Although it is facing internal disagreements and financial pressure, the Iranian regime has repeatedly proven its resilience. And unfortunately, Israel’s actions are at risk of enhancing his internal legitimacy, enhancing the narrative of external aggression. And instead of Israeli attacks to weaken the regime, eventually consolidating hard -core positions, justifying repression and reducing the prospects for reforms or changes in Iranian society and politics, “Saleh concludes.
