It is not of interest, neither of Israel, nor from Iran, that the conflict in the Middle East started with the last week is long prolonged. The opinion is from the Professor of International Relations at the Brazilian Institute of Teaching, Development and Research (IDP), Monique Sochaczewski.
According to her, although Israel is militarily stronger, Iran would be familiar with a longer war, as the previous conflict with Iraq at the beginning of the Islamic Revolution lasted almost eight years. Experts also highlights in an interview with Infomoney that the Iranian regime has achieved through technology alarming the population of Israel. “Iran is doing a cyber war, using artificial intelligence, this is also part of a psychological war, which Iran is doing very well,” he explains.
The teacher also said she saw similarities between the two sides in this type of strategy of manipulating public opinion. Thus, Iran tries to make the game very heavy for civilian population so that it can revolt against the Israeli government. Meanwhile, the Israeli government understands that the Ayatollah regime is weakened and makes a bet that the population can revolt and overthrow this regime. “And it is not known what comes in place. So, there is also a psychological war and war with broader strategies, especially impacting their regimes,” he explains.
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For the teacher, the only person who can stop the war is Donald Trump, but there is a lot of doubt about the president’s interests in the conflict.
See below the main excerpts of the interview with the IPD teacher:
Infomoney – Is there a perspective that the conflict between Israel and Iran extends for some time?
Monique Sochaczewski – It is not of interest, above all, of Israel that this conflict is prolonged. We remember that Israel has been in war for almost two years, due to October 7 [data do ataque terrorista do Hamas, em 2023]with the conflict in Gaza. Israel is a very small country and the ability to receive attacks, especially in populous regions, such as the Center of Israel, is not of interest. What I have been with Israeli analysts is that Iran at first would not be interested in prolonging the conflict, because it can weaken the regime. But Iran has an experience of almost eight years in the Iran-Iran War [entre 1980 e 1988] And to make the war prolong, it is less worse, say, than to Israel. I believe it is not of interest to anyone that war is prolonged. But if there is any country there that would not care, perhaps, a prolonged conflict, it would be Iran.
IM – Even though I know that Israel is militarily stronger, has greater firepower, still can’t you despise Iran as an enemy?
MS – No way. And in fact, Israel cannot eliminate the Iranian nuclear program without US help. This is being a question. Benjamin Netanyahu would never have attacked without any green light from the United States. Anyway, Israel would not have enough weaponry to be able to reach the Fordow [a instalação]which would be the great center of the nuclear program. The whole protection program is being very stressed when Iran sends fifty missiles at the same time. Some ballistic missiles have been able to pierce the protection system and reach regions with wide civil presence. So, alone, I don’t believe Israel can go ahead.
IM – Are you believing US President Donald Trump to enter the war and support Israel?
MS “I’ve always been talking about in public that if you know how to explain what is the process of making a US foreign policy decision making tell me.” Because it is not clear or who is the responsible minister. On the one hand, officially, we have the Secretary of State who is Marco Rubio. Before, Elon Musk was pitacos on these guidelines, we have Steven Witcoff, who has indeed been the Trump representative for the Middle East negotiations, as well as the president himself. Just when he had the attack, Trump seems that at first he was quite impacted after Israel reaches a significant part of the nuclear military elite and practically entered with great freedom in Iranian airspace. Trump even congratulated and said that now Iran should negotiate, as if it were one of those negotiation strategies. But in parallel, Marco Rubio posted on the social media that the United States government was not turned on, right? So the first thing that is not clear is what the process is, if you have a process. What we understand from the Trump administration, both in the first and in this second term, is that nothing is very certain. It seems that at first, he may have supported it – and he certainly gave – because I don’t believe Netanyahu would have done what he did without any US endorsement. But I think the United States, especially the president, are assessing how much it is worth getting into this vesper. I understand that Iran is being careful, avoiding that it is not against the United States or any other country. So what I will tell you is that no one is sure of anything. But I believe the only person who can stop war is Donald Trump. I do not believe that Israel survives a long time in this war without US support. Now, whether he is going to do this or not, it is the question of a million dollars, because I don’t think he even knows it. He changes his mind all the time.
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IM – Even knowing that, militarily, Israel is much stronger than Iran?
MS – There are several issues that you have to take into account. You have to understand that Israel is a military power, it is a technological power. But Iran too. Even I was seeing yesterday on a program on Israeli TV, that Iran is doing a cyber war, using artificial intelligence. This is also part of a psychological war, which Iran is doing very well. To make false alerts to the Israeli population, to put in the international media photos, images of artificial intelligence, as if it had been more impacted than it was. So you have to take this asymmetry into consideration. But remember that Iran, with all the sanctions, with all the problems, has been able to develop ballistic missile program and that this is also an Israeli concern. And from drones, so much so that it was providing to Russia. Russia, who was even using these weapons in the war with Ukraine and must certainly be worried because Iran has warned that it will no longer provide Russia while he is facing a war. So, yes this Israeli military superiority is impressive, you see the freedom of the Israeli Air Force fly almost four hours between and back to make attacks virtually without being rebuked in Iranian territory. Apart from Israeli intelligence that also has so much information, including, apparently, of allies within the Iranian territory. It is always in a gray zone that we have to work.
IM – Is it possible to think that this conflict extends more than expected?
MS “I think it’s kind of suicide to Israel, to Iran, to the Middle East, that he extends a lot.” And the world doesn’t need it, because it must be affecting us here in Brazil. It will affect us even more with oil price, everything we don’t need to have an already complicated economic panorama. And almost on the eve of elections here. I don’t think it is in anyone’s interest that this war is prolonged, except Benjamin Netanyahu, because the more the war lasts, the less he has to face a lot of faults, a lot of faults he has internally. Whether for the failure of October 7, the many processes he personally faces. The only figure in this world that is missing would be President Trump. To the extent, where he could speak thick and somehow stop this conflict. It seems to me that for Iran it is less painful, though painful, that this conflict lengthens more than to Israel. The Iran regime, when it was born, just benefited from the war against Iraq that lasted almost eight years. It has been a regime for 46 years in power, which although certainly weakened, has already precedent to survive a long war. It may be, and that is what I fear, that the regime is actually strengthened from the war than the Israelis think, who believe they may be helping to overthrow the Ayatollah regime.
IM – There is a cost of lives in a long war. Do regimes despise this cost in the power dispute?
MS “I think for Israel it is heavier to lose civilians than to Iran. It’s obvious that everyone suffers, I’m saying in terms of evaluation of regimes.” Even because Iranian speech, the speech of the regime, which is the same as Hamas, is that they are not dead, they are martyrs. So it’s no wonder, I believe this time Iran is attacking the Israeli civilian population because it knows the weight of it.
IM – Is this fear produced in the Israeli population?
MS – This is part of the Iranian military strategy, which knows that the Israeli population has been exhausted since October 7th. It is a trauma that for many people is not over. It also has 53 hostages, alive or dead, which are in the hands of Hamas. There are people who witnessed October 7 with serious mental problems. So the Iranian strategy, to a large extent, has been precisely to make it very heavy for the civilian population, so that it can revolt against the Israeli government. On the other hand, the Israeli government also has the same strategy. He understands that the Aiatollah regime is weakened and even the lines of Benjamin Netanyahu have been that he is making the attack for the population to revolt and overthrow the regime. And it is not known what comes in place. So it also has a psychological war and war with broader strategies, especially impacting their regimes.
