Tel Aviv’s offensive against Persian country’s strategic facilities represent a hard blow to Tehran’s atomic program – although the effects are still incalculable
The unprecedented attack of to the with the stated goal of preventing the country from developing atomic weapons, it is a hard blow to the Tehran nuclear program, but the impact cannot yet be accurately evaluated. Here’s a summary of the situation:
What is the scope of damage?
The outside of the Natanz uranium enrichment plant in the center of the country was “destroyed,” said the International Atomic Energy Agency (AIEA), citing information from the Iranian authorities. This UN agency indicated, on Tuesday, that new elements show “direct impacts on underground rooms,” according to an assessment based on high resolution satellite images.
The other enrichment plant, that of Ford, located south of the Iranian capital, was also attacked, but “no damage was recorded,” according to AIA. Another four buildings were hit in the Nuclear Installation of Isfahan, in the center of the country, including the Central Chemistry Laboratory, a uranium conversion plant, the fuel manufacturing plant for the Tehran research reactor and an installation under construction. It is within the venue of this complex that the important reserves of highly enriched uranium are allegedly found.
Can the nuclear program be destroyed?
“Israel can cause damage to the Iranian nuclear program, but it is unlikely to be able to destroy it,” the researcher Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group organization told AFP. The reason, he explains, is that Israel has the powerful bombs necessary “to destroy the fortified facilities of Natanz and Fordo”, buried in great depth. For that, he would need “American military assistance,” confirms Kelsey Davenport, an Arms Control Association expert, an organization based in the United States.
The knowledge acquired by Tehran cannot be annihilated, although nine scientists died in the attacks, he adds. Another question is what happened with enriched uranium reserves. For now, it is impossible to know. “If Iran can transfer some of them to secret facilities, Israel will have lost the match,” says Vaez.
What are the risks to the population?
The UN nuclear agency did not report an increase in radiation levels around the different affected plants. “There are very few risks that attacks on uranium enrichment facilities cause radioactive and dangerous emissions,” says Davenport. But an attack on the Bushehr nuclear power plant in the south of the country could, yes, have “serious consequences for health and the environment,” he adds. Is Iran really close to getting the atomic bomb?
Following the unilateral removal of the United States from the International Nuclear Agreement in 2018, Iran gradually turned off from certain obligations and accelerated uranium enrichment far above the limit established by 3.67%. In mid -May, the country had 408.6 kg of 60% enriched uranium, close to the 90% needed to develop an atomic bomb, according to an AIA report consulted by AFP.
Iran is the only country not holding nuclear weapons that produces this type of material, the UN agency said. The last report of the AIEA points out that “there is no crying evidence that there is a structured nuclear program” intended to acquire nuclear weapons, as may have occurred in the past. Tehran denies having these ambitions.
*With information from AFP
