The next summit meeting, scheduled for June 24 and 25 in The Hague, the Netherlands, can represent a redesign of powers within the alliance. With the group pressured by advances in the Military Power of Russia and China and threatened by US financial contribution cuts, it is expected that other partners will approve of a substantial rise in military spending in the next decade.
In a recent Think Tank Chatham House event, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte confirmed that a commitment will be sought for allied countries leaders to raise their defense spending to 5% of GDP, being 3.5% directly on military requirements and the rest of industrial infrastructure and construction of industrial capacity.
Rutte stressed that the allies will reach the end of this year the goal set in 2014 to spend 2% of GDP in defense.
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According to a report from the International Strategic Study Institute (IISS), financial costs and industrial defense requirements for NATO’s European portion were able to defend itself against a future Russian threat, without US help, today would equivalent to approximately $ 1 trillion.
To defend this greater expense, Rutte compared that NATO’s economy is 25 times higher than Russia, with $ 50 trillion GDP against $ 2 trillion. But he stressed that this minor economy is producing four times more ammunition than all NATO at the moment.
In listing the challenges, the secretary general described the war potential of possible opponents, noting that, because of Russia, the war returned to Europe, and that there is also a renewed threat of terrorist attacks.
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“Russia has joined China, North Korea and Iran. They are expanding their armed forces and capabilities. Putin’s war machine is accelerating – not slowing down. Russia is reconstituting its forces with Chinese technology and producing more weapons than we thought,” he warned.
According to its report, in terms of ammunition, Russia produces in three months what the whole NATO as a whole can produce in a year. The Russian Defense Industrial Base is expected to produce 1,500 tanks this year alone, 3,000 armored vehicles and 200 Iskander missiles.
“Russia may be ready to use military force against NATO within five years. We will not fool ourselves, we are all in the eastern flank now. The new generation of Russian missiles often travels the speed of sound. The distance between European capitals is just a matter of minutes. There is no more orient or West – there is only NATO,” he said.
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He also stated that China modernizing and expanding its armed forces “at a dizzying speed.” In Rutte’s description, the Asian giant already has the largest navy in the world and that its battle force should grow to 435 ships by 2030. “China is also building its nuclear arsenal. And intends to have over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads, also by 2030,” he said.
For IISS, if US forces retreated from European theater from mid -2025, Europe’s vulnerability window would open rapidly. “European allies would not only need to replace the major military platforms and US labor – the latter estimated at 128,000 soldiers – but also to resolve deficiencies in space and all domains of intelligence, surveillance and recognition,” the institute said in its analysis.
About European needs, Rutte said local military needs thousands of armored vehicles and tanks and millions of extra artillery projectiles. “And we must double our training capabilities such as logistics, supplies, transportation and medical support. Allies will invest in more war ships and aircraft,” he said in detailing that US allies will acquire at least 700 F-35 fighters in total.
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“We will also invest in more drones and long -range missile systems and invest more in spatial and cyber abilities. Of course, if we no longer invest, our collective defense will not be believable. It is not to please one audience, it is to protect one billion people,” he said.
Regarding the intelligent way of spending resources, adopting new technologies, he used the example of Ukraine. “They [os investimentos tecnológicos] They can be economical and offer the same effect as the traditional military ‘heavy metal’. In the Ukraine battlefields, $ 400 drones used in the right way are slaughtering $ 2 million Russian tanks. ”
