This week, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Ormuz, one of the world’s most strategic sea routes, where about 20% of the globally consumed oil.
The Strait, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, is considered essential for the flow of the production of countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, UAE, Qatar and Kuwait.
The new stress climbing was motivated by Western support, especially from the United States, Israel and the intensification of sanctions against Tehran.
The threat of closing, even if it does not materialize, is sufficient to cause volatility in markets and rekindle the debate on logistics alternatives and power sources less dependent on the region.
With this movement, the price of oil has shot since last Friday (13), with the beginning of the offensive. On the first day of conflict, the rise reached 8%.
Since then, the Brent Barrel, a global reference, has advanced 13.5%from US $ 69.36 on Thursday (12) to US $ 78.74 on Thursday (19). WTI, used as a reference in the United States, rose 10.9%, from $ 66.64 to $ 73.88 in the same interval.
Although Iran uses uses the threat of closing the narrow as a diplomatic pressure tool, experts warn that an effective blockade would have immediate impact on oil prices and global energy safety.
For Marcelo de Assis, a partner at MA2 Energy consultancy, the situation is not yet critical, but US involvement, or any other country, can certainly influence Tehran to close the narrow, which also reaches liquefied natural gas exports.
“In this scenario, oil prices could jump to up to $ 120 per barrel. So far, the values have been held in the range of $ 70 to $ 75 due to the weak demand, influenced by the tariff war, but an Ormuz closure would cause an immediate shock of offer,” he says.
However, the expectation is that Iran will not bring forward a complete interdiction. After all, the country also depends on the export of oil by the narrow, as well as risking severe reprisals.
In addition to oil, the Strait of Ormuz is vital for the transport of liquefied natural gas (LNG), especially Qatar, the second largest global exporter.
An eventual even partial block would also have an effect on the supply of energy for Europe and Asia, expanding logistical costs and potentially reconfiguring commercial routes.
The Strait of Ormuz is only 39 km wide in its narrower point, with navigation channels that carry both ways, but extremely vulnerable to naval blocks, mines or drone attacks.
