Under Israel’s bombs is an unpopular and repressive Iranian regime that spent billions of dollars on its nuclear program and exporting the Islamic Revolution through armed militias in the region, while commanding an internal economic disaster and suffocating political paralysis.
Who rules this restless nation is the 86 -year -old autocrat in power 36, as guardian of the revolution – a conservative role that plays skillfully. Khamenei is not a gambler. However, its system – far from a young and aspirational society – seems sclerotic to many. And now it’s trapped.
In six days of fighting, Israel attacked Natanz’s enrichment installation – where most of Iran’s nuclear fuel is produced – killed at least 11 regime generals and several nuclear scientists, bombarded energy and oil, took control of the Iranian airspace and caused the travels of thousands of Tehran, the capital.
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By Sunday, at least 224 people had already died in Iran, mostly civilians, according to the Ministry of Health. This number, however, certainly rose with the continuity of the bombing. Iranian missiles killed at least 24 Israeli.
“The Islamic Republic is a rotten tooth waiting to be torn off, like the Soviet Union in its last years,” said Karim Sadjadpour, expert in Iran of the Carnegie Foundation for International Peace in Washington. “Khamenei is in the most difficult situation you have ever faced.”
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But Ayatollah has faced threats before and has been strengthened. In 2009, when millions protested on the streets of Tehran against what they considered a fraudulent presidential election, I saw closely as state licensed militias brutally assaulted women who demanded dignity and freedom. For a few days, the future of the regime was on a thread. But with absolute brutality he survived. Hundreds of protesters were arrested, tortured, sodomized and murdered.
It is still early to know if the current moment will lead to the collapse of the regime. Isolated shouts from “Death to Khamenei” still echo, but popular protests are impossible under bombs – and always dangerous under an authoritarian government. Visible leaders are also lacking to conduct any political transition, precisely because of repression.
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Khamenei, in turn, keeps his posture challenging. On Wednesday, he responded to the death threat made by US President Donald Trump and the appeal for “unconditional surrender” saying:
“Iran remains firm in the face of an imposed war, just as it will remain in the face of an imposed peace. We will not give in to any imposition.”
It is the typical tone of a proud country that was insurgent against the West almost half a century ago, with the Ayatollah Revolution Ruhollah Khomeini, who deposed the Shah and turned “death to America” into a weekly chorus.
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However, the insurrection never delivered the promised freedom. Frustration has only grown, either because of the mandatory hijab for women who do not want to use it or because of chronically failure economic management.
Iran’s GDP has fallen 45% since 2012. Many have lived in despair. International sanctions for the nuclear program contributed to this collapse, but also weighed corruption, unsuccessful privatization and swollen state -owned companies. Iran even signed a nuclear deal with the US at the end of the Obama government, but Trump tore the pact at the beginning of his term.
“The main message that the Iranian people want to convey is: after all this, that the end result is the end of this horrendous regime,” said an Iranian businessman based on the United Arab Emirates, who asked for anonymity for fearing to be arrested by the Islamic Republic.
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At the same time, with Israeli bombings persisting, signs of a patriotic outbreak even among opponents of the regime who have been arrested. For some, the now exposed vulnerability only confirms the need for Iran to have its own nuclear bomb, such as North Korea. Pakistan, India, Russia and Israel already have nuclear weapons.
“Even being part of the opposition, we cannot be indifferent to the invasion of our homeland,” wrote the teacher of political science Saddagh Zibakalm in an Iranian newspaper. “We can’t be silent or worse, support the aggressor.”
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In 2016, he refused to step on US and Israel flags at a university in Mashhad.
With most of the 92 million Iranians contrary to the regime, according to Sadjadpour and other analysts, it was probably inevitable that the Israeli military campaign, which began with a limited goal, be expanded.
According to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the attacks began as a “preventive action” to prevent Iran from turning enriched uranium into a nuclear weapon. But the initial mission has already been replaced by something larger. Now Trump speaks of “a real end, not a ceasefire, a real end,” while Netanyahu does not hide his goal:
“We have indications that Iranian leaders are already packing their bags. They know what is coming.”
There is still no evidence that surviving leaders are running away, and it is unclear how Israeli attacks could bury the Islamic Republic.
The risk of chaos after a possible drop in the regime is real. Recent examples from Iraq in 2003 and Libya in 2011 are a warning: the overthrow of western forces dictators can leave a trail of instability.
It would be foolish to underestimate the determination of the Islamic Republic to survive – and how willing it is willing to sacrifice for it.
“The Islamic Republic is humiliated like never before,” said Vali Nasr, former dean of the School of International Studies at Johns Hopkins University. “But it may still resist enough time to exhaust Israel and drag the US to a conflict they don’t want.”
