Last Wednesday before sunrise, unknown aircraft appeared over Tehran. The Israeli F-35i, invisible to Iranian radars, began the bravest operation in the history of the country. In six hours of bombing, the key parts of the Iranian nuclear program destroyed. The answer came five hours later – 180 ballistic missiles went to Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.
This was the first direct war between Israel and Iran. After four years of tension, proxy conflicts and diplomatic games, both countries decided to show their real military cards.
David versus Goliath, but who is who?
At first glance, Iran seems to have a clear advantage. In the army, it has up to 610,000 active soldiers, while serving them six times less in the Israeli army-“only” 100,000 uniformed members. In addition, representatives of the Iranian military industry claim that it can produce 93 percent of their military equipment at home. The country also has one of the largest rocket arsenals in the world, consisting of approximately three thousand ballistic missiles with an impact up to Europe.
But Israel builds on another. Its defense budget of $ 30.5 billion is almost four times higher than the Iranian. More than eight percent of Israeli GDP, which is the second highest percentage in the world, are in defense.
The most dramatic difference is manifested in the air. The Israeli Air Force has 39 F-35i fighters (with a planned increase to 75 pieces until 2027). These “spirits of heaven” are virtually invisible to Iranian radars from the 1980s. In addition, Israel has more than 300 modern F-16 and F-15 fighters.
Iran is still flying with American aircraft from the time of the Shah (monarch ruling until 1979). They are old F-14 Tomcat and F-4 Phantom. His latest Kowsar fighter is basically an improved American F-5 machine from 1962.
During the first six days of the Israeli Aviation conflict, more than 340 air raids over Iran practically carried out without losses. According to Israeli sources, Iran could not shoot down any Israeli plane.
HRA S RAKETAMI
However, Iran does not rely on aviation. His secret weapon is ballistic missiles. The state -of -the -art Kheibar Shekan can hit the target of 1450 kilometers with accuracy to the subway. New hypersonic Fattah-1 flies at 13 times the sound and are virtually unattended.
“Iran may have the most sophisticated missile program in the Middle East,” the Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant recognizes. In four years, Iran fired approximately 700 medium -range missiles.
Israel responds with legendary defense systems. Iron Dome (Iron Dome) captures short -range missiles with a success rate of more than 90 percent. David’s Sling (David’s Prak) takes care of the middle range. Arrow 2 and 3 systems can destroy ballistic missiles in space.
The problem is in mathematics. The Iranian rocket costs $ 50,000. Israeli defensive rocket costs three million dollars. And the most advanced arrow missiles are starting to miss Israel.
Less visible, but perhaps the most important fight takes place underwater. Israel has five Dolphin class submarines, allegedly carrying nuclear missiles. They are the quietest submarines in the world, able to spend weeks underwater.
Although Iran has more submarines – 19 to 27 pieces – but mostly it is small vessels for asymmetrical attacks in the Gulf. His three submarines kilo Russian production are noisy and old. The strategic value of Israeli submarines is huge.
Nuclear threat
According to Israel, the current war began because Iran was very close to the development of a nuclear bomb. Some analysts have not seen the threat so urgently.
This does not change the fact that Iran today has enough enriched uranium to nine atomic bombs. Its level of enrichment at 60 percent is just a step from the weapon material. The time needed to produce a bomb has been significantly shortened.
Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear devices Nanz and Fordow destroyed significant parts of the program, but Iran has scattered and underground facilities. Iranian underground facilities are now the main destination of Israeli attacks. However, Israeli military equipment is not enough to destroy these facilities. A bomb that can destroy even 60 meters deep bunkers has only the US.
Counting costs
The current conflict is extremely demanding. Israel spends approximately $ 285 million a day only for missile defense. At present, it can fight 10 to 12 days without American aid.
In six days of fighting, several dozen Israelis and more than two hundred Iranians died. Economic damage exceeds $ 15 billion. The Iranian refinery in Abadan is removed from operation, the Israeli in Haifa is damaged.
The Israeli-Iranian conflict shows what the war of the future will look like. Precise, expensive defense systems against mass, cheap attacks. Artificial intelligence against human ingenuity. Technological superiority against asymmetric tactics.
If Israel is able to neutralize mass attacks by technological superiority, expensive defense systems will become a new standard.
Iran, according to Israeli estimates, produces 300 missiles a month, but its arsenal is shrinking every day and Israeli attack. He may have 300 to 1300 medium range missiles. Meanwhile, Israel has received an additional $ 20 billion from the US to defend and new air defense missiles.
