It is undeniable that the electoral agenda already advances in Brasilia and for the market. “Even with the election still far, history shows that governments move early to try to gain traction in sectors of society where they face resistance,” says Paulo Gama, XP’s political analyst.
According to Gama, measures such as income tax reform, new tracks from the Minha Casa Minha Vida program and a proposal for free energy tariffs are part of this attempt to expand popular support. “These discussions are already posted, but others may still arise throughout the semester,” he added.
Gama and Barbara Baião, also political analyst at XP, participated in the latest episode of the program Stock Pickerswith presentation by Lucas Collazo.
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The reading of the pair of analysts is clear: the movement of the government in guidelines such as tax reform, electricity sector and new lines of credit already aims the presidential race of 2026.
Barbara Baião stressed that the relationship between executive and congress is increasingly impacted by these movements. “Politics does not happen in isolated compartments,” he said.
Electric sector
Among the themes that should be prominent in the coming months, Paulo Gama pointed out the renovation of the electricity sector. According to him, she tends to “warm a lot.” Although it is still in the preliminary phase, sent as a provisional measure by the Executive, the proposal will have a strong impact on the market – and should go into debate in the second half.
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Another point of attention raised was the creation of the INSS’s Mixed Parliamentary Parliamentary Commission (CPMI), which gained strength after allegations of deviations in improper contributions. “CPMI was officially read by Senate President David Alcolumbre, and is a sensitive point. The government tries to control the political environment so that the impact is as small as possible,” Gama said.
He recalled that commissions like this have their own and unpredictable dynamics. “Everyone repeats this mantra: you know how it starts, but you don’t know how it ends. Opposition will use this showcase to counteract the government’s positive agenda,” he said.
Income tax
One of Planalto’s main bets – income tax reform – also carries risks. The government proposes exemption for those who earn up to R $ 5,000 per month, which would imply loss of revenue. To compensate, it proposed an effective minimum rate for those who earn over $ 600,000 per year.
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Gama warns of two challenges in this equation. “The first point is whether the compensation approved by Congress will be sufficient to cover the resignation. The second is to understand who will pay this bill. There may be an impact on specific sectors, with redirect on profits and dividends or JCP and CSLL,” he explained.
These discussions are crucial to the market, according to Barbara Baião, for moving directly on tax expectations. “It is important to note whether the government will be able to build a majority to approve these measures without distortions, which directly impacts the country’s risk and the pricing of assets,” he said.
She recalls that although they look like technical, these schedules are strongly connected to the political game. “Here in Brasilia, everything is interconnected: CPMI, temporary measures, decrees like IOF’s. Our role is to help the market understand how these wires intersect,” he said.
