After all, the asteroid that will not kill us can bring other dangers

Shortly after the astronomers had detected it, they realized that it did not represent any threat to Earth. However, it may also collide with the moon in 2032. The debris resulting from the impact may pose a risk to satellites and trigger a spectacular meteor rain.

The asteroid 2024 yr4 It is between 53 and 67 meters in diameter. It is the same size as the asteroid responsible for the Tunguska event in 1908. There is a probability of about 4% of reaching the moon in 2032 and, if this happens, it will excavate a crater with approximately 1 km in diameter.

The explosion would be equivalent to fence dand 6.5 TNT metric tons And, according to a new investigation, it would launch about one hundred million tons of debris to the space. This cloud of debris may be a danger to satellites. O was published in AAS Journals.

One hundred million tons is a huge amount, but not all this material will reach the earth. “Depending on the exact place of the impact on the moon, up to 10% of this material can reach Earth within a few days,” the authors write.

These determined that, by the end of 2032, if asteroid 2024 YR4 reaches the moon, the satellites near Earth may be exposed to the equivalent of a decade of impact of background meteoroids. “The main concern is the particles ejected with dimensions above the risk limit for satellites (0.1 mm), delivered directly to the low terrestrial orbit (leo), in a relatively short temporal space (days within months), which may represent a threat to spaceships, ”he says.

The objective of the researchers was to determine the short -term effects of the 2024 YR4 impact on the moon. “We emphasize that There are uncertainties of order of grandeur in the following analysis, ”they explain, as a note of caution. Estimated five main factors:

1. The size of the crater.

2. The amount of material expelled to space.

3. The distribution of sizes of the debris that escape.

4. The variety of possible places of impact on the moon.

5. The efficiency with which ejected debris achieve space near the earth.

The study begins with the lunar impact corridor, based on the small bodies of the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS). From the variables of the calculated trajectory for 2024 YR4, scientists simulated 10,000 asteroid clones and their trajectories. In 410 of these simulations, the asteroid collided with the moon. The impact will occur more likely on the southern hemisphere of the advanced face of the moon.

The ejected material that reaches the exhaust speed is not dispersed in an isotropic way. The fraction that reaches the earth depends on the impact location. “As the moon orbits the earth at about 1 km/s, so that the ejected material quickly reaches the earth, the object must collide with the rear of the moon, so that the speed of the material expelled, when leaving the gravitational well of the moon, largely nullifies the orbital speed of the moon,” the authors explain.

The researchers analyzed four of the 410 simulated impacts to determine how much ejected matter could reach the earth. Concluded that There is a significant probability that the 2024 YR4 reaches a moon location that allows 10% of the ejected material to quickly reach the space near the earth.

The earth and its satellites are constantly exposed to a flow of debris that make up the meteoric background environment. The authors claim that the impact debris of 2024 YR4 would exceed this flow in a few days. “Instant flow can reach 10 to 1000 times the background meteoric flow, with sizes that pose a risk to astronauts and spaceships,” they write.

Additional exposure to the debris environment would accelerate satellite aging and reduce their useful lives. This is especially relevant to Low terrestrial orbit satellites (Leo), which constitute most – almost 90% of all satellites. “All this will happen during the few days of maximum debris delivery, if the 2024 YR4 collides with the moon,” the investigators explain.

By 2032, the number of satellites will increase, As well as its exposed total area, which will aggravate the risk and potential damage. “Given the huge total area of ​​satellites exposed by 2032, it is possible that hundreds of thousands of impacts with millimeters are experienced throughout the satellite fleet,” the authors write. They add that, due to the small size of the particles, these impacts may damage satellites, although they hardly lead to the end of the missions.

Howeverin 2032, the risk may extend beyond satellites. Our presence on the lunar surface may mean a more dangerous exposure. “Moon material ejection can be a serious risk for lunar orbit spaceships (such as lunar gateway), but probably represents a even higher risk for any operation on the lunar surfacegiven that most of the ejected mass will accumulate in a vast area of ​​the moon, ”explain Wiegert and his colleagues.

At this time, the probability of the 2024 YR4 impacting the moon by 2032 is low – about 4%. In 2028, the asteroid will pass through the earth without dangeroffering astronomers a new opportunity to observe and better restrict its future trajectory. This will allow more accurate predictions about an eventual place of impact and a more detailed understanding of the risk represented by the debris.