Igor Gielow
SAO PAULO, SP (Folhapress)-United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said on Friday (20) that the conflict between Israel and Iran can “light a fire that no one can control.” “We have to avoid this,” said the Portuguese when commenting on the war, which entered his second week.
The day was from diplomatic movements for now without fruits, after US President Donald Trump, to give up to two weeks to the decision if Israel will unite in the attacks on Iranian theocracy. “Give a chance to peace,” said Guterres, emulating John Lennon’s classic antiguerra song from 1969.
Meanwhile, in Geneva, the chancelors of Germany, France and the United Kingdom met with Iranian colleague Abbas Araye to discuss the crisis. Both sides have agreed that it is necessary to continue talking, and reports have not yet emerged about any concessions placed at the table.
According to the CNN network, that Europeans open the conversations, which were previously direct with the Americans. “This is a dangerous moment, it is very important that we do not see a regional escalation of the conflict,” said British chancellor David Lammy.
His French colleague Jean-Noel Barrot said Iran agrees to debate the themes, even though their UN representation has said earlier that it would not be possible to negotiate under fire. Finally, Aaghchi validated the idea of continuing to the table, something the Israelis has said it was innocuous to end their offensive.
They took an opening message from Washington, who has threatened the leader of Iran and thickened military pressure in the Middle East. French President Emmanuel Macron has outlined and supported the American proposal: zero enrichment of uranium by the Iranians, limitation of ballistic missile production and end of terrorist group financing.
Tehran does not want to give up the enrichment capacity, which serves to make radiopharmaceuticals to the atomic pump, passing by fuel to plants and submarines. Against this there is the fact that it is possible to have a peaceful civil program without enriching the metal in centrifuges, but buying it from allies like Russia.
Araye, in turn, said before the meeting that Tehran could not negotiate while under Israeli bombs, again suggesting that the regime is under intense pressure. It is unlikely by this time that the government of Binyamin Netanyahu suspends the military campaign started last Friday (13).
Nominally, it aimed to eliminate the Iranian nuclear program and other threats. The inaccurate tone escaped the death of at least 20 members of the rival military summit and the cancellation of much of the anti -aircraft defenses of theocracy, as well as the degradation of their ability to throw missiles against the Jewish state.
Underlying this there is a desire to overthrow theocracy, although there is no plan for what to do next. Netanyahu denied this being the goal, but admitted as a corollary of the action. Already his defense minister, Israel Katz, again said on Friday that the attacks serve to “destabilize the regime.”
They continue to fall, but to a fraction of what has already been employed -for 200 on the first day of retaliation by Israel’s action, to about 15. Not that they are innocuous, on the contrary. Iranians began to aim less protected areas than Israel’s nervous center, Tel Aviv.
On Thursday (19), an attack hit the main hospital in Beersba (south), which was shot again on Friday morning, leaving five injured. Haifa, to the north, two people suffered injuries with another direct impact of the missile, and the region in all had 20 injured.
In all, Israel has 24 killed civilians, 1,237 injured and 8,190 shifted in the conflict, but are probably outdated numbers. The same problem is seen in Iranian count. According to the NGO Human Rights Activists of Iran, there are 639 dead, 236 of them civilians, 154 military and the rest, uncertain. There are also 1,300 injured.
Israel’s attacks on military facilities continued, but it is the bombing on the targets of the nuclear program that has been the most controversial. The Director General of the AIEA (International Atomic Energy Agency), Rafael Grossi, asked for “maximum restraint” to Israel.
“Armed attack on nuclear facilities should never happen as it can result in radioactive release with great consequences within and beyond the borders of the attacked state,” he said. Theoretically, the warning is also worth the Tehran, which can seek to attack places like Dimona, where Israel is suspected of its 90 atomic bombs.
Grossi has been under pressure since the eve of the invasion, as it released a report by saying that Tehran is in violation of his transparency obligations defined in the TNP (Nuclear Non -Proliferation Treaty). Continuously, the Israelis used this and the failure of negotiations between Americans and Iranians to attack.
AIEA is a neutral agency, and Iran has a seat in its discussions. The Persian country has since says it will leave TNP and criticizes what it calls Grossi’s impartiality.
From another angle, Russia’s Chancellery remembered Israel that there are still staff working at the Bushehr plant, built by Russian state Rosatom. Then he said that attacks on civil nuclear facilities can “generate a unique catastrophe.”
On Thursday, Israel had said that Alvejou Bushehr, but Rosatom said everything was normal. This Friday, Grossi warned Tel Aviv, saying that inaccurate communications “in the mist of war” can lead to an unwanted climb.
All of this happens while Trump gets time to decide. The best scenario for the Republican is that of a ceasefire without his military participation in war, something that is uncertain from the point of view of effectiveness in the objective of nullifying Tehran’s program.
Moreover, according to research, the idea of going to war is unpopular among Americans -particularly among their most radicalized fans, who believed in the speech that the president would never get involved in what he calls useless wars.
