China, Russia, and Pakistan plan to propose an immediate ceasefire agreement in the Middle East during a UN (UN) UN ORGANIZATION (22) security council meeting. This movement occurs amid tensions between Iran and Israel, after mutual attacks between countries.
In an interview with CNNFAAP and FGV International Relations Professor Vinicius Vieira analyzed the current scenario and the possibilities of a diplomatic resolution for the conflict. According to the expert, there is a lack of consensus in the UN, but there is the possibility of convergence between the interests of powers such as Russia, China and the United States.
Powers’ interests
Vieira pointed out that “Russia and China have no interest in entering there with direct help to Iran.” The expert explained that a climb of the conflict could force Russia to provide military help to Iran, something Moscow prefers to avoid.
On the American side, the teacher recalled that Donald Trump arrived at the White House with the promise of not involving the United States in conflicts that do not interest the American people directly.
“So for Trump, it’s really interesting to stop here. The attacks were made, he helped Israel, but now it doesn’t matter there for the White House to have a conflict that scales,” said Vieira.
Russia’s role
The expert also commented on the increase in Vladimir Putin’s relevance in the context of the Middle East conflict. The trip of Iran’s Foreign Minister to Moscow to speak to Putin is seen as an important signage.
“This is not a military alliance between Moscow and Tehran, but they clearly have a strategic partnership there, including the economic field,” Vieira explained. He added that Iran seeks to empower Putin as a relevant diplomatic actor, considering Russia’s power of veto on the UN Security Council.
Possible regime change
Asked about the possibility of a regime change in Iran, Vieira warned of the risks of instability. “We have no evidence that they are worse than they were before,” said the teacher, noting that even the Iranians who oppose the current regime have a strong opposition to the West, especially the United States.
The expert compared the situation with what happened in Iraq in 2003, warning that a change of regime could lead to more instability in the region. “Everything there I think nobody wants, neither the United States, nor China and Russia is another factor of instability in the world,” concluded Vieira.
