President Donald Trump announced on Saturday night that and threatened new attacks if Tehran does not seek peace. All eyes are facing Iran to see how it will retaliate. But an expert says that most options would probably cause an answer that the regime would not survive.
So far, the fighting has mainly involved Iran and Israel, who launched air strikes against the Islamic Republic last week. President Donald Trump’s decision to send Cruzeiro bombers and missiles to Iran dramatically increase the conflict and places the US in offensive operations, not just in a defensive stance to protect Israel and US troops in the region.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araye said on social networks that Iran “reserves all options” to defend itself.
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While Trump threatened more attacks less than Iran seek peace, Karim Sadjadpour, a senior researcher at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and one of Iran’s leading experts, said it is unlikely that the country’s leadership will take this path. But your answer can also be catastrophic.
“Many of Iran’s retaliation options are the strategic equivalent of a suicidal attack,” he said in a series of posts on the X. “They can attack US embassies and bases, attack oil facilities in the Persian Gulf, undermine the Ormuz Strait or launch missiles about Israel – but the regime may not survive the reaction.”
Apprehensive market
Energy markets are about to suffer a big shock while investors assess the implications of US bombing on Iran, one of the main oil exporters.
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Oil prices had already fired shortly after Israel’s air strikes and can rise further, depending on how Iran responds.
In a note last week, George Saravelos, the leading leading lead of the Deutsche Bank, estimated that the worst scenario – a complete interruption of Iranian oil supply and the closure of the Ormuz Strait – could raise oil prices over $ 120 per barrel.
This is because the Strait of Ormuz is a critical point in global energy trade, as the equivalent of 21% of overall oil fluid consumption, or about 21 million barrels a day, flows through this narrow passage.
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Hard answer
Iran’s ability to use allies and supporters in the region to retaliate in its name was also severely weakened, as previous Israeli attacks have impaired Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas.
Meanwhile, Sadjadpour noted that Iran’s revolutionary guard is a substantial force of 190,000 soldiers, but not monolithic.
“They will continue to submit to 86 -year -old Ayatollah Khamenei as their Supreme Commander, even if their regional and nuclear ambitions have now ended in colossal failure?” He asked.
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Other analysts also warned of Iran’s potential retaliation by taking Americans hostage or launching cyber attacks. And Iran’s Allied House rebels in Yemen said before Saturday that any US attack on Iran would unleash US ships attacks in the region.
But Army’s retired general, Wesley Clark, who has been a supreme commander allied in Europe, told CNN that he does not believe that Iran will resort to a maximum response, such as blocking Ormez Strait.
Instead, it can launch some missiles against US basis in the region or direct pro-teher militias in Iraq to attack US forces.
“I don’t see a large -scale response,” he predicted. “This Iranian regime calculates. It is very careful to understand where you want to go.”
There are about 50,000 American soldiers in the region, mainly spread over Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
For now, it is still unclear whether US attacks on Iran will be decisive. Sadjadpour noted that the supreme leader Ali Khamenei believes to give in to pressure projects weakness and invites more pressure.
But he also said that Khamenei is not a “reckless gambler,” creating a tension between his survival instincts and his challenging instincts.
“This is an unprecedented moment in Iranian history,” added Sadjadpour. “It can strengthen the regime or hurry its fall. It can prevent a nuclear Iran or accelerate one. Military attacks/humiliations have strengthened dictatorships (case of Iran itself in 1980) and also weakened them (in Argentina or Slobodan Milosevic).”
This article was originally published on Fortune.com
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