Donald Trump pushed Iran, the Middle East, the United States, and his own presidency for a point of rupture by attacking Tehran’s nuclear program.
A summer night in June 2025 may be remembered as the moment the Middle East has changed forever; when the fear of nuclear annihilation was removed from Israel; when the power of Iran was neutralized and that of the United States reinforced.
But if Trump’s bet failed to destroy the Iranian nuclear program – despite his statement of having “obliterated” with US air attacks – a president often indifferent to the rules may have released the US and the world in a disastrous course. The risk now is that the Iranian regime responds with attacks on US forces, targets or civilians in the region, turning conflict into a large -scale war.
The US president thus made a risky bet on global security and his own legacy. You cannot predict what will be the consequences of aligning the US directly with the Israeli attack on Iran.
Trump, who came to power with the promise of ending the wars, seems to have started another.
On Saturday night, Trump warned Iranian leaders that if they did not passively accept the attack of the B -2 Bombaries to three important nuclear facilities -and reacted -what would be “much worse”.
“Iran, tyrant of the Middle East, now needs to make peace. If not, the next attacks will be much greater,” Trump said in a White House speech, accompanied by Vice President Jd Vance, the Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.
Bombardments represent a relentless and unilateral demonstration of US military and presidential power – and an impressive culmination of 45 years of poisoned relations between the two countries since the Islamic Revolution of 1979.
But it is easy to start new wars; Much more difficult is to end them. In the Middle East, in particular, the tactical presuppositions of the US presidents – which may contain the consequences of a “shock and dread” operation – have been tragically naive.
Trump – who has consistently resisted to limits to presidential power – sent troops to war without the consent of Congress, properly prepare the American people, and seeking the support of allies. On Thursday, he said he would make a decision on Iran within two weeks – but did not expect this deadline to attack.
The US President also did not have evidence of his allegations that he will be a few weeks to get a nuclear weapon – neither the public nor the rest of the world. And systematically rejected the evaluations of his own information community, which claimed that Tehran would still be years to produce a nuclear weapon.
And Trump can’t know for sure what’s next.
“If someone says he knows how this will evolve – be it an optimistic or pessimistic scenario – that person doesn’t know what he says,” Brett McGurk, a high US employee under republican and Democratic administrations, told CNN.
“No one knows,” said McGurk, currently CNN global affairs analyst.
What will the Iran do?
Immediate questions concern Iran’s ability and disposition to retaliate against American targets in the Middle East and outside. And despite Trump’s statements about the success of the mission, it is unclear whether the attacks have destroyed all Iranian inventory of enriched uranium – which may have been hidden – and can still be used to make a rudimentary nuclear weapon.
No American top leader wished Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. But these uncertainties were precisely why Trump’s predecessors avoided taking the risk of a direct attack, despite years of proxy war, including the support of Iran to militias responsible for the death of hundreds of US soldiers in Iraq.
According to official sources, Trump does not consider that these bombings are comparable to the wars of Iraq and Afghanistan, which took decades to resolve. Still, Iran now has a margin to decide how to react – and can drag the US to a new war.
The immediate danger lies in the fact that, even weakened after days of Israelite attacks, Iran can attack American bases, personal or civilians, inside and outside the Middle East – causing a bloody climbing.
Iranian leader, Aiatola Ali Khamenei, was completely humiliated on a question that he considers central to his regime: the right to enrich uranium. It is therefore difficult to imagine that it does not respond bluntly.
But Trump warns that any Iranian reaction will be done at your own risk.
“Either there will be peace, or I will face a much larger tragedy than the last eight days. Remember, there are still many targets,” Trump warned in his speech.
Despite the destruction of much of its missal of missiles and the weakening of its regional allies – such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza – Temerão continues to have options.
It can cause a global energy crisis by closing the Ormuz Strait, crucial for oil transportation. You can attack US allies in the Gulf. It can resort to militias in Iraq or Syria to attack US troops and bases. Any of these answers can lead to a climbing with reprisals that culminate in a total war between the US and Iran.
Political impact on Iran
The internal impact of the attacks also remains uncertain. Some analysts speculate that the offensive can generate political seizures in Iran, threatening the survival of the regime. Israel has hope that the attack will contribute to the collapse of a government that threatens “sweeping it from the map.” However, a drop in the regime may give rise to even more radical and dangerous power, possibly led by elements of Islamic revolutionary guard. A state collapse could result in a civil war and spread instability far beyond Iranian borders.
For many Iranians, the immediate fear is that a humiliated regime intensifies internal repression.
The ghost of the wars of Iraq and Afghanistan – started with rapid military successes, but followed by decades of conflict – hangs over this military action.
The US took nearly 20 years to leave these bogs. Several other presidents have tried to redirect the resources of the Middle East to Asia, focusing on China.
This new conflict does not have to follow the same path. The Middle East has changed in recent months. Iran’s regional power was seriously weakened after the Israelite attacks of retaliation to the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. And the forecast that the murder of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, during Trump’s first term, would cause regional chaos not realized.
But Trump put the US in a new rail of uncertain outcome.
He concluded that the risk of giving him a nuclear bomb was more dangerous than the consequences of the effort to prevent him.
Iranian attacks feed fears about Trump’s power maneuvers
Trump’s offensive reinforces the fears of his critics, who believe the former president seeks absolute power, on the sidelines of the American Constitution. After all, he began a new conflict without representing him a direct threat to the US. Their history of lies and the erosion of democratic institutions make it harder to convince Americans that they acted correctly.
Trump has also created a precedent for unilateral military actions that violate international law – a model that can be used by dictators to justify aggression to more fragile nations.
Trump is now testing the support of his most loyal political core.
It has reneged one of the few consistent principles of the Maga Movement: the end of the era of American wars in the Middle East based on dubious information. Still, Trump has been firm in his position from preventing nuclear weapons.
The attack on nuclear facilities represents a huge triumph for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been pressuring a military solution for the problem for decades. Netanyahu actually started war just over a week ago, knowing that Israel had no means to complete it alone – like the antibunker bombs the US used on Saturday. He bet that once the Iranian air defenses were disabled, Trump would take the opportunity to try to eliminate the Tehran nuclear program. And hit.
Democrats accuse Trump of violating the Constitution
Trump’s decision to attack Iran caused an immediate political storm in the US.
Republican veterans in Congress declared support. The mayor of representatives, Mike Johnson, and the leader of the majority, Tom Emmer, praised the action.
“Military operations in Iran should serve as a clear warning to our opponents and allies that President Trump speaks seriously,” said Johnson.
But the main democrats accused him of violating the law, circumventing the constitution and dragging the US to a new conflict in the Middle East.
Virginia senator Mark Warner, Democratic leader of the Senate Information Commission – who, like other leaders, was not informed before the attack – hardly criticized Trump’s decision: “Without consulting Congress, without a clear strategy, without considering the findings of the information community, and without explaining to the American people what is at stake.”
