Up: A large plan satellite image shows Isfahan’s nuclear complex after US attacks on Sunday. Maxer Technologies
United States President Donald Trump quickly announced US attacks on Iran as a “spectacular military success,” stating that the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities were “totally destroyed.”
Western military sources have told CNN that it is too early to fully evaluate the damage caused by more than a dozen US Bunker Buster bombs, as well as a series of Tomahawk cruise missiles, which have reached the major nuclear facilities of Iran.
But even if Trump’s description proves to be correct, the destruction of Iranian nuclear facilities may not mean the end of the Iranian nuclear threat.
Far from it.
For years, first -rate voices within the Islamic Republic have appealed to a nuclear weapon as a deterrent against exactly this type of overwhelming attack.
Even if Iran will continue to insist that its nuclear program is intended for strictly peaceful purposes, these appeals will now be inevitably reinforced and nuclear policy supporters can finally get what they want.
By the way, the Iranian authorities are already publicly implying the possibility of abandoning a fundamental treaty – the treaty of nuclear non -proliferation, or TNP – designed to control and prevent global dissemination of nuclear weapons.
“TNP is not able to protect us, therefore, because a country like Iran, or other countries interested in having peaceful nuclear energy, should rely on TNP,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araye said at an Istanbul conference.
Other Iranian legislators appealed to the Islamic Republic formally withdrawn from the treaty, which would probably be interpreted as a virtual confirmation of the Iranian intention to build a nuclear weapon.
Of course, the intention is different from capacity.
And it is likely that nuclear capacity is an important issue in the immediate aftermath of US attacks. Just as the latest satellite images seem to confirm, the fact that it was hit by more than a dozen Bunker Buster bombs will have seriously prevented, if not destroyed, Iran’s nuclear program.
But if there is political will, nuclear enrichment facilities may eventually be repaired or reconstructed, while Iran’s technician know-how, although Israel has tried several Iranian nuclear scientists.
However, employees of the International Atomic Energy Agency (AIEA), the United Nations Nuclear Surveillance Body, say they do not know for sure the whereabouts of nuclear material that has already manufactured, including the large amounts of 60%enriched, which is very close to quality weapons quality levels.
Iranian state media state that the three nuclear facilities affected by the United States – Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan – have been “evacuated” in advance, raising the possibility of part or all that material is stored in another place, possibly in a secret installation, unknown to nuclear inspectors.
This satellite image shows the installation of Fordow uranium enrichment in Iran on Sunday after US attacks. Editor Note: The satellite photo above was rotated by Max’s Technologies, the source of the image, to show the original orientation of the moment the image was taken. Maxer Technologies
None of these dangerous nuclear uncertainties is what Trump seems to have negotiated.
“Iran, the Middle East bully,” he announced after the US attacks, “now has to make up.”
But with the whole region now prepared for more Iranian retaliation attacks – against Israel, US military bases or important maritime routes, such as the Ormuz Strait – pacification seems increasingly distant.
“Our conversations with Iran were a true window of opportunity,” a European diplomat insisted on CNN, referring to the brief meetings held between European and Iranian officials in Geneva on Friday.
“But the Americans closed this window,” added the diplomat.
