With the US involvement in his operations against him, the indications that the fire of an open wider conflict threatens the overall threat with the attack of the Islamic State () in the Greek Orthodox Church in being simply the tip of the iceberg.
Concern by ISIS attack
The, from which at least 22 people were killed, bears the stamp of the Islamic State both in the way it was done and in the message it passes.
According to what the perpetrator became known (there may have been another person), invaded the church, opened fire with an automatic weapon and then sparked the zone with the explosives he was wearing. The target was a Christian church, which in the past were everyday goals of ISIS fighters.
However, this attack comes to emphasize and more beyond the danger of his return. It brings to the surface the risk of destabilization made possible, both US, Turkey and Israel’s policy in Syria and now in Iran.
US policy in Syria and Iran
The choice of American leadership to withdraw its forces from Northern Syria, turning its back on the Kurds, forcing them to agreements with the Ahmad al -Saraa government (which maintains close relations with Ankara), and its choice to push for the closure of the facilities is background for further destabilization.
The US policy on their unblocking Syria, which also led to the withdrawal of almost all of their military personnel from the country, but also the emptying week (while US involvement in Iran) two bases in the country, creates a huge gap, which has caused anxiety.
Israeli policy targeted Iran
Israeli media are closely monitoring developments in Syria on the country’s security situation with which they are adjacent to. The Israeli side, in addition to being occupied by Syrian territories in the Golan Heights, has been taking initiatives to increase its level of control within Syria.
For example, as it was preparing operations against Iran, it dismantled the remnants of Syrian air defense by air raids, while also revising its relations with the Drussians’ minority in the south of the country. Earlier, he had managed to “break” the bonds of the Assad regime with the Iranian revolutionary guards, with targeted murders of Iranian consultants of Assad.
Israel’s policy in Syria, and now his attack on Iran, has de facto created the conditions for a confrontation with Turkey by Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
This means that Turkey will continue and possibly intensify its own moves in the region with the aim of limiting Israel’s influence in an area that Ankara considers vital to its interests.
Turkey is pushing too
In this way, Turkey contributes to the creation of further conditions of destabilization in the wider region.
In a demonstration of power (in the context of competition with Israel and Kurds), the Turkish authorities carried out a huge operation within Turkey that led to the arrests of dozens of members of the Islamic State. This move is essentially an attempt by the Turkish leadership to prove that it is a credible ally in the fight against ISIS and that … it does better work than the Syrian Kurds.
In discussions with the US that had taken place during Donald Trump’s visit to the Middle East two months with the first station of Saudi Arabia, the Turkish side had argued that it should be responsible for the prisons and detention centers of the Islamic State Fighters.
In the end, the agreement between the government of Al Saraa and the Kurds, transfers control of the centers and their emptying to the Damascus government by the Kurdish authorities and militias that had it until recently.
Risk of ISIS recovery
Since the beginning of the year, with the upheaval in Syria due to Assad’s fall, the Gaza open front, the change in the US government and generally the uncertainty, the Islamic State seems to have begun an effort to recover. ISIS took responsibility for 38 attacks in Syria in the first five months of 2025, which places it in orbit for about 90 attacks until the closure of the year.
According to data from the Intelligence Group site, which monitors the organization’s online activity, this is about one -third of the attacks last year on Assad. This provision could prove extremely invalid, given that as it is demonstrated by the Turkish operation against the organization, there is strong mobility on the ISIS side. According to reports on local media, such as Arab Weekly, its fighters are reactivated in Iraq and Syria, there is a strong armaments between the organization’s fighters, while constantly trying to increase their numbers. The evidence shows that Syria and Iraq have managed to prevent more than 20 attacks by the organization.
Syrian and Iraqi confrontation fields
The use of the airspace of Syria and Iraq, by Israel and the US to hit Iran, de facto, places the two countries, which live with the fear of a destabilization by the Islamic State at the heart of the latest developments. At the same time, it is converted, as is demonstrated by recent demonstrations in Iraq by the Shiite population of the country in favor of Iran and against the US and Israel, into possible battlefields for influence and imposition of accomplished. Operations against Iran, it is clear that there is a risk of pushing the Middle East to a new cycle of violence and uncertainty.
