Article originally in the Financial Times. Other articles .
By his decision to join Israel on Saturday in the attacks on nuclear facilities in Iran Donald Trump, the United States has drawn the United States to the Middle East. The fact that he considers these attacks to be a limited military operation, not a war, and that it highlights their success does not change anything to the facts: the United States has joined the war of Israel against Iran.
The involvement of America is now giving Tehran a justification for attacks on energy equipment in the Gulf of Persian and American bases and ships in the Middle East, whether it is deciding to act now or in the future. He also risks that it will draw the West into something that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to be an effort to change the regime in Iran.
Iran does not have good options
Trump and America have taken a dangerous step into the dark. The Western world has properly united in an effort to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons and in demand that Tehran stops supporting the radical allies in the region. But a few weeks of Trump’s diplomacy is barely a trusted process that would justify a military action.
The damage caused by the US bombing of Iranian facilities in Ford, Nanz and Isfahane are certainly considerable. However, if Tehran still has certain capacities or has hidden a portion of its inventories of highly enriched uranium, he can now rush to develop nuclear weapons and create a deterrent.
It is too early to know how Tehran responds. The Israeli War has shown the weaknesses of the Islamic regime, both in defense and attack. Iran knows that if he focused on US goals in the region, it would cause further attacks. Restricting attacks on Israel would only extend the war in which the next goal would be the regime itself.
No matter how strong the desire for retaliation is, Iran has no good opportunities. Its leaders should retreat and not to heal the situation. Oil prices are now likely to rise sharply. Investors will be even more concerned that Iran could block the Hortmian Strait, which is passing through a quarter of the world’s oil trade.
The countdown has begun long ago
However, the ability and willingness of the regime to enforce blockade are not clear. Whatever happens, the uncertainty around the conflict itself will be the brake of the world economy. The risk of gradual expansion of the mission objectives has increased significantly.
Israeli-American attacks can start a chain of events that lead to the fall of the Islamic regime, but there is no guarantee that it will replace it more acceptable for America, Israel and the West. On the contrary, this can lead to a vacuum. Iran’s neighbors fear that the state could collapse in a multinational country with 90 million inhabitants, and the country could fall apart, and Iraq’s failure after the invasion under the US leadership in 2003 will be repeated.
The countdown in the US attack began with the decision of Trump in its first term of office to withdraw from the nuclear agreement with Iran, which significantly reduced the nuclear activities of the country. It was an imperfect agreement, but Iran followed it. Diplomatic efforts to reduce Iran’s nuclear ambitions have always been the best option.
Trump’s government has allowed Netanyahu, who has long rejected diplomatic efforts with Tehran, pushing his diplomacy into a sideline and drawing Trump into the war he wanted for ten years. The last few weeks have shown that unlimited Israel is also a destabilizing force in the region.
The US President concluded that Iran’s weakness and success are a unique opportunity to blow against Iran. Perhaps concerned about the hints that he will not observe his threats, and frustrated by the failures of his peaceful efforts in Ukraine and the Middle East, he saw a quick victory in conjunction with Netanyahu mission. But at the same time, he underwent a huge risk, amazed his isolationist base and exposed the Middle East greater instability and crisis.
© The Financial Times Limited 2025. All rights reserved. It must not be further spread, copied or modified. Ringier Slovakia Media is responsible for providing this translation. The Financial Times Limited is not responsible for the accuracy or quality of the translation.
