Even before launching missiles against a US base and President Donald Trump trying to intermediate a ceasefire with Israel, Iran was already looking for a way out.
On Monday morning, the Iran’s Supreme National Security Council held an emergency meeting to discuss a retaliation against the United States. The Americans had bombarded three of Iran’s major nuclear facilities over the weekend, another serious blow after a week of Israeli attacks that caused serious damage to Iranian military leadership and infrastructure.
Iran needed to save appearances. From inside a bunker, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatola Ali Khamenei, ordered a counterattack, according to four Iranian authorities familiar with war planning.
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But Ayatollah also sent instructions for the attacks to be contained – to avoid total war with the United States, according to these authorities, who were not allowed to speak publicly about the country’s war plans.
Iran wanted to reach an American target in the area, they said, but also wanted to avoid new attacks from the United States.
Thus, Iran’s revolutionary guard chose Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar for two reasons, according to two Guard members: being the largest American military base in the region, they believed she had coordinated the attacks on US B-2 bombers to Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend.
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But because he was in Qatar, an ally near Iran, Iranian authorities also believed the damage could be relatively limited.
Hours before the attack, Iran began to send previous notices that an attack was imminent, conveying the message through intermediaries. Qatar closed its airspace and the Americans were alerted.
To the public, Iran has boasted their attack on Americans as the price for attacking Iran. In a televised speech, a spokesman for the Iranian Armed Forces said the US-based attacks on Qatar were performed by the revolutionary guard.
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“We warn our enemies that the ‘hits and run’ era is over,” said the spokesman.
Iranian state television exhibited patriotic songs with images of ballistic missiles illuminating the skies of Qatar. The presenters theatrical spoke about the glory and victory of Iran in a war against imperialist powers.
But behind the scenes, according to the four Iranian authorities, Iran’s leaders hoped the limited attack and notice persuaded President Donald Trump to retreat, allowing Iran to do the same.
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They also hoped Washington would press Israel to end his intense bombing to Iran, which began well before the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and continued until Monday night, according to Tehran, the Iranian capital.
Before attacking US forces at Qatar, one of the Iranian authorities said the plan was not to kill Americans, as any death could lead the United States to retaliate, potentially triggering a cycle of attacks.
The plan seemed to work. Then Trump said 13 of the 14 Iranian missiles fired against Al Udeid were intercepted, that no American was killed or injured, and that the damage was minimal.
In a remarkable statement, Trump even thanked Iran “for warning us in advance, which allowed no life to be lost and no one was injured.”
“They have already put everything out of their system, and with luck there will be no more hatred,” he said.
Soon after, Trump announced that a ceasefire was imminent between Iran and Israel, although this was questioned on Tuesday morning. Trump criticized Israel and Iran for concerns about fulfilling the truce.
In just over a week, the war has exceeded many previous limits at dizzying speed. But Iran’s appetite for a long war was decreasing.
Most Iranians joined the flag and denounced the war as an attack on the country, even with tens of thousands of people displaced from their homes in Tehran and other cities. Stores, companies and public offices were closed or functioning at reduced hours. The economic impact was beginning to appear, with taxi drivers, workers and others saying they could not survive much longer.
“Our country has no capacity to continue this war,” said Sadegh Norouzi, leader of the Tehran National Development Party in a virtual meeting. “We have economic problems, we have difficulty maintaining popular support and we do not have the same military and technological capacity as Israel and the United States.”
Some of the appeals by the end of the war came from members of the revolutionary guard. Karim Jaffari, a group -linked political analyst, wrote on his social media page that Iran should focus his war against Israel and not conflict with the United States. “The only thing Iran doesn’t want now is a wider and more multifrontal war without considering its consequences,” he wrote.
What Iran will do next is still unknown. Although the attack limited to US forces in the region seems to have been calculated to avoid a deeper conflict, it does not necessarily mean that hostilities are over.
Western authorities admit that despite US attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, they are not sure what happened to the Iranian uranium stock. Does Iran have the ability to enrich even more uranium? Will you try more covert ways of aggression? Or now will try to negotiate the end of the harsh sanctions imposed on the country?
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghi, has made a diplomatic offensive, traveling to Türkiye, Russia and Turkmenistan. After Iran’s attacks on US forces at Qatar, Araye said in an interview with Iranian state TV that the war against his country did not achieve his goals.
“I’m not saying there was no damage, yes, there was,” Araghchi said on Monday. “But they failed to achieve their main goal of completely depriving us of all our abilities or any other goals they may have had.”
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