Whenever there is tension in its area and the Persian Gulf, the threat of exclusion from Iran returns to the spotlight as a scenario. But how feasible is this blockade? What tactics does and how effective can they prove to the combined power of international naval forces?
The Blocking of the Hormuz as a strategic handle of Iranians
The straits of Ormuz, a marine passage of just 33 kilometers wide, move about 1/5 of the world’s oil supply daily. Iran repeatedly threatens that, in the event of a war conflict or its complete exclusion from international markets, the passage will be closed. Although this threat is mainly a deterrent, the business means of Tehran are both real and calculated.
Note: The gun of surprise
The basic method by which Iran can attempt to block the narrow is the extensive narcotics with 5 to 6,000 nautical mines, many of which are advanced models such as EM-52 Chinese-made, equipped with sound and magnetic sensors and perpendicular capacity.
The success of such a business depends on the speed and secrecy of the action within 72 hours, with the participation of three Kilo -type submarines and 23 smaller Ghadir (with the ability to transport 20 mines each). One or two of merchant ships are sufficient to stop the insurance markets in the straits and creating de facto exclusion.
Asymmetric attacks: the IRGC hybrid doctrine
In addition to mineralization, Iran has developed a wide range of asymmetric media to make their threat included:
- Ghader ferry rockets with range of over 200 km, launched by island bases (eg qeshm, hormuz).
- Simorgh and Ababil-5 flocks with the possibility of autonomous coordination and saturated attacks.
- IRGC Boghammar Braphic Boghammar, capable of reaching quickly and causing damage or confusion on merchant and warships.
This tactic is not aimed at full sovereignty over the maritime area, but to create uncertainty, confusion and financial damage.
Possible reaction
The blocking of the Ormuz would instantly trigger a coordinated reaction. US Naval Forces (based in Bahrain), have a disintegration (USS ponce, MH-53E helicopters, UUVs), while allied naval units would be activated through the IMSC International Naval Alliance.
The deception is estimated to take 2–4 weeks, given the volume and extent of the area (10,000+ km²), but the initial reaction would be military: Air strikes against Iranian submarines and coastal installations, with the aim of limiting the threat.
The cost of blocking for Tehran
Despite the operational capacity, the strategy of a complete exclusion is short -lived and high -risk for Tehran itself as it means:
- Annual loss of revenue of up to $ 20 billion from oil exports.
- New international sanctions and legal activation of the UN based on Resolution 2231.
- New air strikes from Israel and the US to coastal strategic bases, radar and weapons systems.
Iran can cause great disruption, but not withstand the consequences of a prolonged sea clash.
A real feature with no perspective of duration
The Iranian doctrine excluding hormoz straits is a temporary deterrence tool, but not a sustainable strategy. Iran has the ability to cause serious – albeit temporary – turmoil in the global energy flow system. However, the complete exclusion would trigger a complex, fast and overwhelming superior reaction from the US and its allies.
In an environment of tension such as the Middle East, the hormoz remains more a “warm strip” than a truly closed sea – unless a totalitarian collision erupts.
(The article was based on analyzes by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the US Naval Institute, Military Sources of Open Information and UN diplomatic data)
