The United States and Qatar forced Israel and will accept the fire that in recent days seemed little less than impossible, given the violence of the attacks of both old enemies since Israel opened fire on June 13. Now that the bombings have ceased, a double challenge remains ahead, especially complex for the impatient ways of the US president: to ensure that the fragile truce does not jump through the air and resume negotiations with Iran that Washington had planned for June 15 in Oman and that the Israeli offensive dynamited.
The task of keeping hostilities parked does not seem simple; There is a lot of installed distrust, and the rivalry between both contenders is old. In addition, the tension has shot up to levels never seen in a war that Trump had fun baptized on Monday that in the region can only send to one thing: the war of the six days of 1967. Iranian President himself, Masud fishshkian, has used the term to give the truce good. “We are witnessing the fire and the end of the 12 -day war that was imposed on the Iranian people through the reckless aggression and the warmad of the Zionist regime,” he said through a statement, EFE reports.
Beyond the fortune of his occurrences, it seems clear that Trump is in a position to score somewhat. Two days after US aircraft attacks with antibunker bombs three Iranian nuclear facilities without the prior authorization of the US Congress, the agreement between the irreconcilable rivals moves the ghost away that Washington is dragged by the Israeli war path and involved in the long term in a war in the style of Iraq and Afghanistan. On the opposition to these two war adventures, Trump built part of the message that
Humillation to Netanyahu
Daniel Ben Simon, Labor Exparliamentary and former reporter of the newspaper Haaretzgives an essential role to Trump’s “quite amazing” power. “His authority has been so strong that he imposed his decision on both sides, and especially Netanyahu. It has been almost a humiliation that [este martes] will force him to bring back to the Air Force, ”he highlights.“ This high fire has decided on the march. There are not even written documents, ”says Ben Simon, who warns that“ with Trump, Netanyahu will win the next elections. ”“ When you have Trump on your side, the Israeli, who hate weakness, will vote for you. And Bibi (as Netanyahu is popularly known) and Trump are a superpower, ”he says.
The possibility of recovering that diplomatic route with which to continue pressing the Ayatolás regime to maintain its nuclear program at the lowest possible level is also opened to US negotiators. For José Vericat, principal investigator of the Royal Institute Elcano, this has been a war “sought by Netanyahu”, “without having case of war nor imminent threat. ”In this sense, the offensive of these 12 days has revealed that Israel lacks” political horizon “in the region and continues to bet on” purely military hegemony. “
The Trump administration defends, in the absence of offering evidence, that its weekend attack damaged that program irreversibly, although there are doubts about it. It is not clear how much enriched uranium has been saved before the projectiles fall; Nor, how long would Tehran take to resume their program. The Iranian regime has always assured that it is not intended to obtain the atomic bomb, the main argument defended by Netanyahu to launch its offensive.
At the moment, Trump seemed on Tuesday to park a rhetoric that has become strong these days in Washington: the idea that a regime change in Iran could be on the horizon. He did it aboard the presidential plane Air Force One, that took him to The Hague to participate in a NATO summit marked by the events of the Middle East. The journalists asked him to clarify a message on his social network on Sunday in which he wrote that “if the current Iranian regime cannot rebuild Iran’s greatness, why would there be a regime change?” This Tuesday, Trump said: “No, if it happens, welcome, but no, I don’t want it. I would like everything to calm down as soon as possible.”
“A regime change entails chaos, and we do not want to see so much chaos,” added the US president. “The Iranians are very good merchants, very good entrepreneurs, and have a lot of oil. They should be fine. They should be able to rebuild and do a good job. They will never have nuclear weapons, but apart from that, they should do a great job.” Everything indicates that this message was also aimed at the critical voices within the Republican Party and the Maga Movement (Make America Great Again) that shaved Trump to have taken only five months to break his promise of not putting the United States into new war adventures, a commitment that broke last weekend in a spectacular way.
Partially appeased the spirits at home, where the Democrats, especially the congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, have requested the opening of a impeachmentit remains to be seen on the terrain how the unwinding is substantiated. At the moment, he did not surprise on Tuesday to verify that none of the parties would like to recognize that he has lost.
On the one hand, Israel says that it has achieved its double objective of ending the nuclear and missile program, something that is not clear. “Israel’s bar for victory in this battle was very high. It was the destruction of the nuclear program and the collapse or overthrow the regime. Meanwhile, for Iran it is another, much lower. The survival of the regime and the ability to restart the nuclear program” and “enrichment” of Uranium within the non -proliferation treaty (TNP), José Verricat understands in telephone conversation.
It is true, he adds, that Israel has “put a great varapalo” to Iran and has tried to “violate her sovereignty” dominating “to his free will” from the air his space permanently, as he does in Beirut or Damascus. “But, obviously, Iran is not Syria or Lebanon,” says the analyst in reference to the greatest potential in all the senses of the Ayatolás regime and the distance, about 1,500 kilometers, much greater of their neighboring countries. The expert believes that Tehran has managed to play his cards well with the counterattacks, both before Israeli superiority and with the shy retaliation launched on Monday against the American base of Al Udeid in Doha, the largest in Washington in the Middle East.
Vericat also believes that Tehran’s goal arrived at this point is to “win time.” “Any day that passes from truce is a day won to Iran in terms of taking the air a little, to replay and see where it goes.”
At the moment, it was advanced the first day of the fragile armistice, which began with new attacks and cross accusations, four dead in Israel and Trump’s anger, which, according to AP, warned Netanyahu that he could not count on new bombardments of the Washington part. How much will the waters endure is the big question that resonates today, not only in the Middle East.
