GALI TIBBON / AFP POOL
Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel
Since 1992 Netanyahu says Iran has been a maximum of 5 years to develop nuclear weapons. However, a recent UN report continues to have no evidence that Iranians are producing bombs.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s accusations that Iran is about to have nuclear weapons can Soar has already seen – And it’s not by chance. The Israeli Prime Minister has been saying for over 30 years that Tehran has been about to become a nuclear power, although this scenario has never been fulfilled.
The first time was in 1992, when he was still just a deputy in the Israeli Parliament. At the time, Netanyahu stated that “ period from three to five yearsWe can assume that Iran will become autonomous in its ability to develop and produce a nuclear bomb. ”
Two years later, in 1995, Netanyahu published a book titled Fighting Terrorism where it makes the same forecast again: “The best estimates at this time put the between three and five years to have the prerequisites necessary for independent nuclear weapons production. ”
In 1996, already as Prime Minister of Israel, Netanyahu spoke at the United States Congress and asked his American allies to cross “ Nuclearization of terrorist states“.” The deadline for achieving this goal is getting closer and closer, “he warned.
In 2002, in statements to a Committee of the American Congress, Netanyahu manifested in favor of the war in Iraqstating that both Iraq and Iran were close to having a nuclear arsenal. “There is no doubt that Saddam seeks, works and advances towards the development of nuclear weapons. Once Saddam has nuclear weapons, the terrorist network will have nuclear weapons,” he said confidently. It is recalled that the conflict in Iraq was based on Washington’s claim that Saddam Hussein’s government had weapons of mass destruction, but these weapons were never found.
Seven years later, as leader of the Likud party and a candidate for prime minister, Netanyahu met with a congressional delegation visiting Israel. In the conversation – whose content was released by Wikileaks – Netanyahu warned that Iran was “probably only one or two“To have nuclear weapons. Asked about the origin of this information, it attributed the forecast to Israelite” experts “without specifying who they were or giving more explanations.
Still in 2009 and already after being reelected Prime Minister, another telegram obtained by WikiLeaks indicates that Netanyahu told a separate group of Congress members visiting Israel that “Iran now has the capacity to make a bomb” or “could expect and manufacture several pumps in one or two years“.
But the most notorious accusation happened in 2012, when he spoke before the United Nations General Assembly, accompanied by a bomb cartoon with the fuse lit.
“Next Spring, or at most until next summer, following the current rhythms of enrichment, they will move to the final phase. From there, it’s just a few more months or even Possibly a few weeksuntil they have enough enriched uranium for the first bomb, ”said the representative of the Jewish state, pointing to the drawing.
Now, 13 years later, Netanyahu has returned a similar speech to justify Israeli attacks against Iran. “They have not stopped. Iran can produce a nuclear weapon within a very short time. It may be a year, it may be a few months,” he said.
What do the tests say?
Although there are signs that Iran is increasing the production of enriched uranium, a report from last month of the International Atomic Energy Agency states that There is no evidence that Tehra will be actively trying to produce nuclear weapons.
“We have no evidence of a systematic effort to make nuclear weapons,” the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, also said in an interview with CNN.
“We did not have any proof of a systematic effort to move into a nuclear weapon.” Director General affirms his agency’s findings about Iran’s nuclear program.
— Christiane Amanpour (@amanpour)
The same is said by US intelligence agencies. According to the New York Times, the American responsible believes that the Will not decide yet If a nuclear bomb will be manufactured, although it has large reserves of enriched uranium.
In March, Trump’s own national intelligence director, Tulsi Gabbard, made similar statements before Congress, stating that US intelligence agencies concluded that Iran was not building nuclear weapons and had not resumed the program since its suspension in 2003.
Asked about these statements, Trump disagreed. “I don’t want to know what she said. I think they are very close to having a bomb,” he said. Since then, Gabbard has turned back, and now says that, after all, Iran can have a nuclear weapon in a few weeks and that its statements had been decontextualized by “dishonest media”.
Some American authorities believe this retreat is based on the material provided by Mossad, the Israeli intelligence agency. Although some American authorities consider the reliable Israelite estimate, others emphasized that the evaluation of American intelligence has remained unchanged and is risky to the US based only on what is said by Israel.
Are we facing an Iraq 2.0?
Constant contradictions have raised doubts about Iran’s nuclear program is really the true motivation behind the recent escalation of tension or if the goal is, after all, to overthrow the Government of Iran and establish a new regime more favorable to western interests, using nuclear fear as a pretext.
Recently, Benjamin Netanyahu admitted that the Israelite operation against Iran “can certainly” result in regime change and described the Iranian government as “very weak.”
Donald Trump also admitted this Sunday that he does not rule out the possibility of changing the government. “It is not politically correct to use the term“ change of regime ”, but the current Iranian regime is unable to Do the big Iran againWhy would there be no change of regime ??? Miga !!! ”, he wrote on his social network, social truth.
However, the US President has already marched, saying before boarding the NATO summit that he does not want to overthrow the Iranian government. “I want to see everything calm down as soon as possible. The regime change causes chaos and ideally we don’t want much chaos, ”he said.
Even so, these statements are shaking ghosts of the past and raising comparisons with the war in Iraq, especially given the prevalence of a web of economic interests that may influence US government decisions.
If oil is now often pointed out as the true reason for the invasion of Iraq, the same motivation may now be behind the escalation of tension with Iran, which is the 8th largest oil producer in the world and also the 3rd largest producer of natural gas.
The interests of the military industrial complex can also be influential. According to those of the Taxpayers for Common Sense, the weaponry industry donated more than 184 million dollars For US politicians’ campaigns between 2014 and 2022. For the 2024 electoral cycle, the defense industry contributed another $ 42 million.
