The tension surrounding the Ormuz Strait, where about 20% of the global oil passes, lit a yellow signal in the sector
In the midst of an unstable truce between the fear of new attacks in the region, the president of Refina Brasil, Evaristo Pinheiro, evaluates that Brazil should take advantage of the geopolitical warning moment to prioritize its energy security. The tension around the Ormuz Strait, where about 20% of the global oil passes, lit a yellow signal in the sector. For him, if the conflict again climbs, the world may face severe logistics problems in the supply. “If the war escaped to the point of closing the Ormuz Strait, you have a problem of oil logistics movement in the world,” he warned.
Although the risk of shortages is not yet concrete, the impact on price is already noticeable – and inevitable. “The price oscillation itself not, because we have where to buy fuel, we buy fuel from Russia, we buy fuel from the United States, right? Little from India, but we have a source of supply. What yes has to happen is price increase,” he said. Given this scenario, Evaristo reinforces that Brazil needs to treat energy sovereignty as a priority. International instability opens the country’s degree of exposure to external factors and highlights the need to strengthen fuel production internally.
On the eve of the Federal Government’s announcement about increasing the mandatory ethanol mixture in gasoline to 30% (E30) and diesel biodiesel to 15% (B15), Refina Brasil is in favor of the measure. The assessment is that biofuels contribute directly to the energy transition and the stability of the sector.
“Gasoline consumption has been increasing 2% per year. For us, it is neutral and even positive from the point of view of energy safety. We represent both traditional and biorefino refinement, which is fuel production from 100% biomass,” he said.
Nevertheless, Evaristo draws attention to the structural fragility of Brazil. The country has enough fuel storage capacity for just six days, as well as a refining deficit of approximately 600,000 barrels per day. Even though it is self -sufficient in oil production, Brazil still depends on the importation of derivatives – which expands exposure to external crises and oscillations. The lack of predictability in the domestic market is also seen as an obstacle to the advancement of the sector. Petrobras’ domain over 60% of national refining capacity allows the state to define the prices practiced on the market. Private companies, with less participation, are forced to follow this reference, even if this compromises their economic viability.
When Petrobras sells fuels below market price, private refineries operate with loss. This imbalance makes new investments unfeasible and perpetuates the country’s external dependence on processed fuels. For Evaristo, this logic wages the expansion of national refining capacity and compromises the construction of a competitive market. According to him, the current environment drives investors interested in expanding the refining structure in the country. If Brazil corrects these distortions and encourages competitiveness, there is the potential to attract more than $ 70 billion in investments, generate 4,500 jobs and raise more than $ 20 billion to the public coffers.
The disclosure of the Petrobras Sustainability Report, on June 17, adds data relevant to the debate on the energy transition. The document reports that the company intends to invest US $ 16.3 billion in projects focused on reducing emissions over the next five years. It also points out that since 2015, there has been a 40% reduction in the absolute Emissions of CO₂E. The planned actions must generate up to 315 thousand jobs in the period.
Among the measures mentioned are the construction of units aimed at the production of renewable diesel and sustainable aviation kerosene (SAF), lower emission maritime fuels, entry into the carbon credits, environmental actions and social qualification social programs. The report also cites international partnerships linked to the decarbonization target.
For Refina Brasil, the success of these initiatives depends on the construction of a more balanced environment for the private sector. Strengthening refining capacity in the country, coupled with the advancement of biofuels and the correction of distortions in the domestic market, is seen as a necessary step for Brazil to reduce its external vulnerability and advance into energy safety.
