In his statement yesterday, the president assured by the Hague that military blows against his nuclear facilities substantially destroyed Tehran’s ability to acquire nuclear weapons in the aftermath of a preliminary secret document of the information services that came to light.
As the Wall Street Journal reports in an extensive publication, this is illuminating a wider issue that is expected to plague the US intelligence community for a long time: the actual extent of damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities. Although there is evidence that they have caused serious damage, it is not clear how much the program has been hit, unless an international inspectors are allowed to visit the points and suspicious locations where enriched celestial and relevant equipment may be kept. Tehran insists that her nuclear program is aimed at energy rather than weapons.
“Distance damage is always difficult,” said Charles Duelfer, a former head of UN Inspector in Iraq and later CIA’s assessment chief after the US invasion in 2003. “That is why I need inspectors.”
Unexpected press conference in Pentagon
Speaking at the NATO Summit in The Hague, Trump defended his initial statements that Iran’s nuclear program was “completely eliminated”, describing the first leaks from the Defense Information Service (DIA) as “imperfect” and “non -convincing”. The issue is expected to be raised at a press conference at the Pentagon on Thursday morning, announced by Trump social.
As Trump said in a post on the Truth Social platform on Wednesday, Hegschez will appear with army representatives in the Pentagon. The goal, he said, is “to defend the dignity of the great American pilots”.
The US president announced that the interview would be “and interesting and unquestionable”, implying that evidence will be presented that reinforces Washington’s position for business success.
Indeed, referring to the pilots who threw the stealth, he said that “these patriots are outraged! After 36 hours of flights over hostile territory, they landed knowing that their success was legendary – and two days later they started reading fake news. “
CIA director John Ratclifis supported Trump’s allegations, though without giving details. “From targeted blows,” he said, adding that “several facilities have been destroyed and will take years to reopen.”
The White House and the CIA did not respond to the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium stocks, nor if they moved before the attack. On Sunday, Vice President Jay Di Vance said Iran probably still has some stocks. “In the coming weeks we will work to ensure what happens to this material and this will be the subject of talks with Tehran,” he told ABC News.
Prior to the US and Israel attack, Iran was considered to have had a quantity of uranium sufficient to build about ten nuclear weapons. However, according to Vance, this amount is now useless due to the destruction of basic enrichment units.
A person who is aware of the content of the DIA leaked document stressed that his first paragraph notes that this is a preliminary evaluation, based on information gathered within the first 24 hours of the attack and has not coordinated with other information services. It also states that days or weeks are required for complete assessment of the situation.
‘Early, low -confidence assessment’
Dia’s senior official described the document as “early, low confidence evaluation – not a final conclusion”.
In fact, former US officials and experts. Key questions include: To what extent the enrichment facilities were overthrown, such as the heavy fortified installation of Fordo, built in a mountain. If, or recovered stocks of enriched uranium, before or after the attack. If there are secret installations that have not been affected. If part of the program survived, some former officials estimate that Tehran may move more determined to acquire nuclear weapons.
“The destructive attacks of the US and Israel probably have reinforced Iranian interest in nuclear and increased the influence of hard -core that support armament growth,” said Robert Ainhorn, a former high -ranking State official.
This disagreement is another episode of tension between Trump and some of his own intelligence services. In the past, Trump had questioned the unanimity of the Intelligence Community of Russia’s involvement in the 2016 elections.
Spying services often produce preliminary, non -confirmed estimates, which are shared intravenously for further processing. For example, the National Security Service (NSA) analyzes espionage to identify if Iranian officials are discussing the extent of the damage.
The full valuation of the situation will probably be long and complex. Members of Congress are calling for information on the results of the attacks, but according to the White House, the government plans to limit the notification of data to Congress after the Dia document leak.
