Israel-Iran: The next day, the “thorns”, the reconstitution and the lessons

by Andrea
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Πώς ο Τραμπ «επέβαλε» την εκεχειρία μεταξύ Ιράν και Ισραήλ

With the truce between and -which essentially imposed with a merely impressive and essentially stroke, but also with many jokes and posts on Truth Social, or to be adhered to, the conflict that brought the one step ahead of the ignition.

Restore Iran and Israel despite… “fatigue”

This, of course, does not mean – as Donald Trump today said in his statements at NATO today – that Iran and Israel could not even start again in hostilities.

The two sides are “tired” as Trump said, but they are trying to rebuild and appreciate the dynamics of their position after the “12 -day war” as the US president called the last conflict between the two long -term regional opponents.

Essentially Iran and Israel, they measure their wounds from the blows that have managed one side to the other and prepare their next moves.

US -Iran discussion was announced by Trump

If Trump said, there is a chance that there will be a meeting with representatives of the Iranian leadership on the issue of the nuclear program. Trump was not clear whether a meeting would actually take place and rushed to use this statement to insist that Iran, after the US attack, no longer had a nuclear attack, after destroying it all.

It is precisely the key to the continuation of the confrontation, which everyone hopes will not be the point of “talking” the weapons.

The “thorn” of the next day

Iran, regarding US blows at Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan’s nuclear facilities, argues that there were indeed “significant damage”, but without substantially giving evidence of the impact that the blows – if they had – had already enriched uranium reserves.

As he does not say whether the centrifugal devices were completely destroyed, and by voting in Parliament he interrupted his cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) at least until he appreciated the damage. In addition, the Iranian side argues that there are already plans to reopen the facilities, since before the attacks had already taken measures to ensure continuing production.

The reaction of both Israel and Trump is a blend of threats if there is a resumption of production, but also denial that there is any truth in what they say and that the nuclear program has been destroyed.

Donald Trump is particularly supported by this latest version and even reached the point of refusing to report the US intelligence services that the damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities after the US attack is not so great, but also the first IDF estimates that the damage to the IDFs.

In his latest statements, Trump even cited estimates from the Israeli side, arguing: “You know they have people where they went immediately after the hit and saw the situation and said about absolute disaster.”

“Successes” and “Failed”

In any case, beyond the debate whether Israel and the US have finally achieved the proclamated as a key objective of their business, the truce allows for an assessment of other parameters that will play an important role the next day.

For example, the “secondary” goal of the Israelis, which was essentially the “change of regime” in Iran, is clear that it was not achieved.

The alleged predecessor to take over the reins of the country, the son of former Shah of Persia, Reza Pahlavi, remained to continue to make a social media, while both the Iranian government and the pyramid of the hierarchy of the Moulades did not.

Many officers of the Revolutionary Guards and other Security and Army and the Army, as well as scientists, were killed by the Israeli attacks. The regime was not threatened.

The lessons about Israel

As for Israel’s side, the Netanyahu government did not easily spend these twelve days of the war, and they were celebrating every day that they had air superiority over Tehran. Dozens of Iranian missiles were pierced by the expensive and widely publicized air defense systems and the anti -missile shield, and according to reports, not only residential areas, but also military installations and critical infrastructure.

Haifa refineries, but also to some critical infrastructure in the south that plunged a large part of the country in the dark show that Israel is anything but invasive and that in a longer duration of conflict with Iran it is not clear that it will be able to hold it in a position. Another important lesson is that air defense systems also have their limits as there is a chance that they have a prolonged collision that they do not have to launch rockets and other ammunition against incoming missiles.

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