The war has impacted fully on the heavens of the Middle East. Bombing and missile attacks have triggered war tensions, but also nervousness, safety risks and financial pressures between the main air operators in the region. In the satellite images, Iran looks like an immense desert since he announced the closure of his airspace, which has caused a massive wave of canceled flights and changes in the itineraries, has left thousands of stranded passengers and has forced the airlines to look for alternative routes – more long and expensive – to avoid conflict areas.
“Commercial traffic has stopped completely in Iran and almost completely in Iraq,” says Ian Petchenik, communications director of the specialized platform Flightradar. Israel also closed its airspace in the middle of the hostilities, although some restrictions have raised since Monday.
After the bombings ordered by, the US president, against during the early hours of Sunday, the effects have extended intermittently by practically the entire region, although traffic has gradually regularized from the truce promoted this week by Washington.
“Before it was assumed that after exchange hostilities, the air spaces would open soon,” says Petchenik. “But now, it is no longer known how much closures will last or, even, if they will spread to other areas, so uncertainty is greater.” The doubts reached a high point with the entrance of the United States in the conflict against Iran, although the high temporary fire has mitigated the fears.
Tehran’s attacks against the air base were preceded on Monday by the closure of the Catarí airspace for several hours to “guarantee the safety of residents and visitors,” said the authorities in a statement, which left hundreds of stranded travelers. Then there was a waterfall effect, with temporary restrictions at the entrance and exit of airplanes in Kuwait, Bahrain and United Arab Emirates, which joined the disruptions that war has caused in Israel.
“The closures are extremely expensive for any country,” says Petchenik. The Israeli authorities last year recognized losses of more than 26 million euros and a fall of seven million passengers with respect to 2023 for the war in Gaza.
The effects are not limited to flights within the region. They have also prevented over -up for Iranian and Iraqi territory, one of the busiest and most short corridors for the routes that connect Europe with Asia. Between fears that some of their aircraft can be demolished deliberately or by mistake, the airlines have chosen to surround the conflict areas, which translates into higher operational costs, points Miguel Mujica Mota, professor at the Aviation Academy of the University of Applied Sciences of Amsterdam.
The specialist figure in about 9,000 euros every extra hour of flight, between fuel cost overruns and other expenses, such as payment to the crew, although he clarifies that the impact may vary a case -by -case case. Petchenik, for example, estimates in about 6,000 euros only expenses for each additional hour of fuel use for a Boeing 777.
“In this industry the main component is security and given any potential conflict risk, the only alternative is to avoid the area,” says Mujica Mota. Background as at the hands of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard still weigh in the industry. Since the beginning of the century, six commercial aircraft have been demolished by error, according to data from the consultant Osprey Flight Solutions collected by Reuters.
The alternatives to avoid geopolitical risks are, however, more and more limited: to the south by the Arabian and north peninsula, bordering the Caspian Sea. It has been closed by air traffic through Ukrainian territory and Moscow has prevented the passage to Western airlines through their territory. Now, the resurgence of conflicts in the Middle East has made the runners that remain open and has congested them even narrower. Since the exchange of attacks between Israel and Iran, air traffic for Saudi Arabia has doubled and traffic by Afghanistan has been quintupled, according to Flightradar data published at the end of last week.
The main affected airlines have been and, the two giants in the region, who used to perform more than 1,200 weekly flycards for Iran and Iraq before the outbreak of the conflict and maintain their main operations centers in the area. He suspended for days his flights to the Middle East, Europe and the east coast of the United States, although their services have already begun to regularize. American Airlines and United Airlines announced that they are not going to travel to Doha or Dubai until new notice.
Some European companies do not want to run any risk, such as Finnair, which has announced that it will not cross Israel’s airspace, Iraq, Iran or Syria. While Air France Klm has already resumed most of its flights in the region, others like Lufthansa will wait for at least one more week. He has canceled his flights to Tel Aviv until June 30 and abandoned his previous plans to resume services to Doha as of Wednesday, according to Reuters. Wizz Air does not plan to fly to Israel until mid -September.
After the reopening of the Catarí airspace, Qatar Airways has resumed operations, although it has anticipated “significant delays” in its itineraries. “This week brought an operational crisis that few airlines have faced,” said the airline. Emirates has tried to show certainty and, although he has recognized some changes in his routes, he has said that the tensions of the last two weeks have not prevented him from operating “as always” and that “the disruptions have been minimal.”
Petchenik, on the other hand, warns that if the closures extend to other areas of the Middle East that have not yet been affected, the impact for commercial aviation can be “dramatic.” In the middle of a slow regularization of services, geopolitical volatility in the region has forced passengers and specialists to monitor changes in real time.
The signs of a de -escalated between Israel and Iran have given a respite to the region and optimism has been reflected in the actions of the main European airlines. Although uncertainty has not been completely dissipated, Iraq and Syria announced on Tuesday the reopening to traffic, as did the Gulf monarchies. Iran resumed their activities in a limited way after the truce, although the authorities have said that their airspace will remain closed until Thursday.
On Monday and Tuesday, at least 1,200 flights were canceled in the region, according to Al Jazeera with data from the company FlightAware. Specialists warn that a rebound in hostilities, especially if they last, can translate into pressures for the sector, from compensation for passengers and fluctuations in the price of oil to changes in their planning for the coming months.
“The operators would have to adjust their prices and their routes, and part of those costs would be passed to the passengers,” Mujica Mota predicts, although it clarifies that companies will have to find a balance between mitigating their problems and staying competitive for travelers. Geopolitical turbulence in the region and the possibility of a permanent truce are followed closely from the air.
