Given the sequence of government defeats in Congress, especially the overthrow of the Decree on the Financial Operations Tax (IOF), assistants of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva state that the Planalto Palace will adopt a pragmatism strategy. The idea is to expect to cool the tension and follow dialoguing with parliamentarians to make agreements on guidelines of interest to the executive. The plan, however, includes intensifying the discourse of “rich against poor” adopted in relation to tax changes, one of the points that bothered the legislature’s summit.
The government’s focus is to avoid burning bridges with congressional leaders not to make it impossible to approve guidelines that can serve as electoral flags in 2026, such as income tax exemption for those who earn up to $ 5,000. The measure was a Lula campaign promise and the evaluation is that it will represent a wear and tear to reach the end of the term without being able to deliver it.
Another factor that leads the government to insist on dialogue with the center parties, largely responsible for the defeats in the last days, is to avoid playing these acronyms on the opposition lap in 2026. Lula’s allies work so that acronyms such as PSD, União Brasil and MDB are independent, betting on regional alliances with the PT.
On Thursday, a day after 58 of the 60 deputies of União Brasil vote against the government, Lula met with the party president, lawyer Antonio Rueda. The meeting, which was already foreseen before the vote the day before, took place after the party leader stated, in an interview with Globo, that the acronym federation with the PP should support a right center name in 2026.
The expectation of assistants, however, is that the petista should not seek the presidents of the Chamber, Hugo Motta (Republicans-PB), and Senate, David Alcolumbre (Union-AP), at this time. The gesture would have to leave them, since in the government’s view there was a breakthrough according to the way the overthrow of the IOF decree was placed in a vote: without notice, without passing through the college of leaders and in a virtual session.
A non -petista minister says that the biggest risk now is the relationship to degrade to the point of the parties, such as PP and União Brasil, to deliver the positions.
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The evaluation of PT members is that the recent defeats suffered by the government in Congress are sponsored by Centrão parties to weaken Lula electorally. Leaders of base-related parties credit mainly to the president of the PP, Senator Ciro Nogueira (PI), considered the political godfather of the mayor, Hugo Motta (Republicans-PB), the crisis lived between the petista government and the congress.
In addition, the senator has been striving to look for the presidents of other parties to join Lula in 2026. Last week, he sought MDB Presidents Baleia Rossi, and Republicans, Marcos Pereira.
Even though it is traditionally supporter of the government, the MDB, which has 43 deputies, gave 41 votes favorable to overthrow the decree. Motta’s party gave 42 votes out of a total of 44. There were also significant supports in the PP, which gave 48 of 50. The PSD gave 28 of 45, which represents more than half of the bench. All of these parties occupy ministries in the management of Lula.
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In the Senate there are also friction, especially in a dispute involving the president of the House, David Alcolumbre (Union-AP), and the Minister of Mines and Energy, Alexandre Silveira. The crisis, which involves projects that benefit companies and can increase the electricity bill and dispute by regulatory agencies, practically fought the Senate’s agenda.
Deputy Mendonça Filho (União-PE), a member of the Union Executive, evaluates that the economic framework and the low popularity of the petista contribute to these acronyms to distance themselves from the government.
“These parties will not be with the PT in 2026. Everyone works with an alternative, such as governors Tarcisio de Freitas (from São Paulo) and Ratinho Jr. (from Paraná),” he said.
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Members of the most faithful MDB wing to Lula, which includes chiefs from Northeast states, admit that the arguments for trying to convince the other part of the legend’s center right to support the president in 2026 are emptying. This group states that in the current scenario, the tendency is to release regional directories to define which candidate will support.
“There is a concern of the true Lulistas with this relationship that is constituted with Congress. The Minister of Finance has no close relationship with Congress, nor the Minister of the Civil House. There is a problem of dialogue with the House. Politics is relationship,” said Deputy Eunício Oliveira (MDB-CE).
Despite the hopelessness of Lula’s electoral viability to 2026, emedebists are more committed when it comes to evaluating the departure of representatives of the Ministries’ legend. Unlike União and PP, which trigger the landing of the Esplanade, the MDB prefers to wait until April next year, when it is necessary to remove public office to run for elections.
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“There is still a chance that MDB support Lula, but it will depend on the president’s articulation in the coming months. It is necessary to start an articulation already looking at the reelection, which has not yet happened,” said Deputy Hildo Rocha (MDB-BA).
Government members, however, argue to double the bet on the political clash and see the issue of fiscal justice a conducive field for it. The assessment is that if the government is on the ropes, it needs to at least guide the public debate. In reading a minister of a center party, the opposition takes disadvantage on this theme.
Management Flag
As the globe showed, just over a year for the election, the government considers that it can position itself more emphatically by highlighting that it acts in favor of the poorest and fights the privilege of the rich. It would be, in the view of assistants of the president, a way of finding, finally, a mark for this third term of Lula. Research shows that the population has difficulty pointing out a large realization of the current management, as was the reduction of poverty in the first two terms of the petista (2003-2010).
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Thus, the idea is to use the taxation of the rich provided for in the proposal to increase income tax exemption, the end of the 6 x 1 workday and the fight against supersalaries in functionalism as management flags.
