Lula ties with Bolsonaro and Michelle in Pará

A survey by Paraná Research in the State of Pará shows that the president (PT) would draw with the former president (PL) in any dispute for the Planalto in 2026.

The current president appears with 35.5% of voting intentions compared to 39.8% of the former president. The margin of error is 2.5 percentage points.

In the dispute against Michelle, if she is chosen to replace her husband, the petista would have 36.4% against 31% of the former first lady.

In confrontation with the governor of São Paulo, (Republicans), Lula leads with 36.8% of voting intentions against 20% of Tarcisio. The petista also has advantage against the deputy (PL), adds 36.5% against 24.1% of the federal deputy.

Simulated scenarios also include (PDT), (União Brasil), (PSD) and (MDB).

Here’s the scenario with Jair Bolsonaro:

• Jair Bolsonaro (PL) ­­– 39,8%;
• Lula (PT) – 35,3%;
• Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 9,9%;
• Junior Ratinho (PSD) – 2,5%;
• Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil) – 2,2%;
• Renan Filho (MDB) – 0,5%;
• They don’t know/didn’t think – 4,2%;
• None/whites/nulls – 5,6%.

Here’s the scenario with Michelle Bolsonaro:

• Lula (PT) – 36,4%;
• Michelle Bolsonaro – 31%;
• Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 11,4%;
• Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil) – 4,9%;
• Junior Ratinho (PSD) – 4,1%;
• Renan Filho (MDB) – 0,7%;
• do not know/did not opine – 4,7%;
• No/whites/null – 6,9%.

Here’s the scenario with Tarcísio de Freitas:

• Lula (PT) – 36,8%;
• Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) – 20%;
• Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 14,3%;
• Junior Ratinho (PSD) – 5,8%;
• Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil) – 4,2%;
• Renan Filho (MDB) – 1,5%;
• do not know/did not opine – 7,3%;
• None/whites/nulls – 10,2%.

Here’s the scenario with Eduardo Bolsonaro:

• Lula (PT) – 36,5%;
• Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL) – 24,1%;
• Ciro Gomes (PDT) – 12,6%;
• Junior Ratinho (PSD) – 6,1%;
• Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil) – 5,9%;
• Renan Filho (MDB) – 1,1%;
• do not know/did not opine – 5,6%;
• None/whites/nulls – 8,1%.

2nd shift

The survey also tested the eventual scenarios in 2nd round. Here’s the results:

Lula x Jair Bolsonaro:

• Jair Bolsonaro (PL) ­­– 46,4%;
• Lula (PT) – 42,5%;
• do not know/did not opine – 4,7%;
• None/whites/nulls – 6,4%.

Lula x Michelle Bolsonaro:

• Michelle Bolsonaro – 44,2%;
• Lula (PT) – 43,5%;
• do not know/did not opine – 5,1%;
• None/whites/nulls – 7,3%.

Lula x Tarcísio de Freitas:

• Lula (PT) – 43,3%;
• Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) – 39,3%;
• do not know/did not opine – 7,0%;
• None/whites/nulls – 10,4%.

Lula x Eduardo Bolsonaro:

• Lula (PT) – 44,4%;
• Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL) – 40,1%;
• do not know/did not opine – 6,3%;
• None/whites/nulls – 9,1%.

State Government Evaluation

The survey also asked the interviewees how the current president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) evaluates. Most respondents (44.1%) claim to consider Lula’s management “roomy” or “Terrible”. Positive evaluation, that is, “excellent” or “boa”total 31.3%, while 23.6% say they find the current government “regular”.

Here’s the percentages:

• excellent – 21,6%;
• bom – 29,8%;
• regular – 25,3%;
• roomy – 7,2%;
• bad – 14,6%;
• do not know/did not opine – 1,5%.

More objectively, with only two answers options (approves/disapproval), 44% of voters say they approve the petista’s government, while 52.2% disapprove. Another 3.8% could not answer.

Here’s the percentages:

• approve – 44%;
• disapproval – 52,2%;
• do not know/did not opine – 3,8%.

Paraná research has in person interviewed 1,542 voters in 60 municipalities from June 21 to 24. The margin of error is 2.5 percentage points, for more or less, and a degree of confidence of 95%.

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