The ceasefire was described by distracted analysts as a triumph of Trump and Netanyahu. In fact, it provided the theocratic regime to extract from the military defeat a political victory. The two objectives of the war launched by Israel were to destroy Iran’s nuclear program and promote a change of regime in Tehran. None of them were hit. Worse: US megabombubs sent the wrong message to nuclear artifact to Iran.
Trump oscillated between polar positions, highlighting his incompetence in the domains of foreign policy. At first it allowed the Israeli attack on the eve of a new round of US/Iran negotiations, devastating the credibility of the White House word. He then tried to use Israel’s bombings in vain to impose a “zero enrichment” agreement, which would equivalent to capitulation.
Jumping between war and peace, the US president sought to reconcile his unrestricted support to Israel with his promises to keep the US away from war conflicts. At the decisive moment, he ceded Netanyahu, launched the megabombas about Fordow and pronounced a requirement for regime change. Hours later, in the face of an Iranian scenographic retaliation, I imposed the ceasefire on Israel and prophesied the inauguration of eternal peace.
The ceasefire leaned on the pillar of lies. According to Trump, the megabombas “obliterate” Fordow, something denied by a preliminary report of American intelligence. There are evidence that, before bombing, Iran removed 408 pounds of enriched uranium. No one knows the extent of damage to the centrifuges in depths.
Israel launched its attacks by eliminating military targets. Fearing a popular insurrection, the regime deactivated the internet. On subsequent days, bombings spread to energy infrastructures and civil areas, which removed the hypothesis of a mass uprising. So the repudiation of external aggression was even vocalized by outstanding opposing leaders who spent years in prisons.
The military campaign did not cause change, but stiffness of the regime. Khamenei, the supreme leader, hid in a bunker, delegating decisions to military chiefs. The core of power began to move from the Shiite clergy to the most radical leaders of revolutionary guard. Under the alibi of the repression of Israeli spies, opponents were re -trapped again. The dread of Israeli bombs gives way to perennial fear established by security forces.
For two decades, Iran has chosen to maintain a nuclear threat only, relying on the supposed security offered by foreign militias of the “resistance axis.” Months ago, Israel eliminated Hezbollah as a combatant force, beheading the “resistance axis.” Until his armor, after a 12-day military humiliation inflicted by two nuclear states, Iran leans over reevaluating its options in the light of classic experiences.
The tyrants of Iraq and Libya resigned from the atom trail and were overthrown by US interventions. North Korea, on the other hand, built a nuclear arsenal and its regime survives untouched. The radicals of the Iranian regime remains the conclusion that salvation lies in possession of the bomb. The replacement of diplomacy with megabombas sponsors a tacit treaty of nuclear proliferation.
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