Mohammed Know / EPA
Gaza residents flee the Al Shatea refugee camp during fighting between the Israelite army and al Qassam
A new independent study estimates 75,000 “violent deaths” in Gaza, which surpasses the official numbers of the Gaza Ministry of Health in Hamas by 30,000.
A new independent study estimates that about 75 thousand people – the equivalent of 3.6% of the population of the Gaza Strip – died from violent causes between October 7, 2023 and January 5, 2025.
The number is significantly higher to the Gaza Ministry of Health officially registered, controlled by the Palestinian Islamist Movement Hamas, and considered reliable by the UN – which points to about 46,000 deaths in the same period.
The new estimate, conducted by a team from the Catholic University of Lovaina, Belgium, led by Debarati Guha-Sapirit is based on surveys carried out at 2000 randomly selected homes, in which respondents were invited to indicate family members before the war began and their current situation.
Despite the difficulties of access to certain zones, due to the ongoing combat and the orders of Israeli evacuation, researchers believe that these gaps will have led to a underestimation and not an inflation Of the numbers, the Indiana quoted by the., noting that the criteria of the Ministry of Health of Gaza to account for deaths are very rigorous. Exclude, for example, cases where the bodies were not recovered – As victims buried in tunnels.
The new estimate will thus reflect the real impact of the conflict more accurately, the researchers believe.
In addition to direct deaths, the study also calculates the existence of about Nine thousand non -violent deaths above expected during the same period – The first estimate independent of the indirect impact of the war. These deaths can result from factors such as the destruction of health infrastructure, lack of access to medicines and worsening living conditions.
The new study brings new, frightening numbers, but is not the first to point to a number of deaths far above the officer.
In February last year, another estimate-supported by the UN-pointed to an inflated number, but was based on data collected through online surveys and social networks, which does not make it so reliable.
However, Francesco Checchi of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, responsible for the February study, opposes that the methodology used is not necessarily less accurate, although acknowledging that the new investigation is more recent and includes data on indirect deaths.
On the other hand, a letter published in The Lancet magazine in 2024 suggested that, based on a proportion observed in other conflicts, such as Sudan, where there are four indirect deaths for each direct death. But before the war, the region was very different from those of Sudan, namely in terms of extreme poverty and access to health, argue the authors of the new study.
Without ceasefire in sight, one thing is certain: the number of deaths will only continue to increase.
