The government’s defeat in Congress last week, with the overthrow of decrees that would increase the rates of the IOF (Tax on Financial Operations), indicates a scenario of difficulty for the president in 2026, say political scientists. In addition to symbolizing the government’s political weakening, the episode raises a question about Lula’s ability to gain support among congressmen in the dispute for reelection.
The case of the IOF adds to a series of senior management setbacks throughout the year, in relation to Congress and inaugurates partnership between the president of ,, and the president of, in an articulation against the Planalto.
In the House, the project that sustained the decrees was approved with 383 favorable votes and 98 against Wednesday (25). Already in the Senate, the approval was symbolic and there was no count of votes. It was the first time since the government in the 1990s that a presidential decree was overthrown by the legislature.
“The lack of political articulation of the government will have dramatic consequences for Lula in next year’s elections,” says Beatriz Rey, professor of political science at USP (University of). “The overthrow of IOF decrees shows that parties are removed from the government, which will result in loss or absence of support in the election year.”
The reciprocal is true, she says. The researcher says that Lula seems more concerned with having an international legacy than in enabling the approval of more lacking guidelines. She also states that the government’s relationship with the houses is unstable on the three fronts that characterizes it: the management of the coalition, the articulation between political actors and the lack of opening of Congress to dialogue.
After all, deputies and senators find themselves before a government with problems of popularity. This month, which Lula is disapproved for 40% of the electorate, keeping the worst level of his three terms. Only 28% approve it, which denotes the interruption of a movement of resumption of popularity.
In Rey’s view, it is also difficult to identify the government base. In theory, 16 of the 19 parties would supplant the coalition, but the reality is quite different. Five of these acronyms are from Centro-right-UNION BRAZIL, ,, MDB, Republicans and PP-and prefer the name of the governor of São Paulo (Republicans), for the next elections. Not for another reason, the government has accumulated defeats in Congress.
Between April and May, Lula suffered eight setbacks from his base, among which the break with members of and the approval in the House of a project that aimed to suspend the action of the coup plot in the (Federal Supreme Court).
In February, Lula exchanged the political articulation team: the minister () left the Secretariat of Institutional Relations and gave way to the then president of the PT ,. The difficulties persisted.
FGV Political Science Professor Marco Antonio Teixeira says that the congressional dissatisfaction scenario with Lula occurs with the ministerial reform yet and the pressure for more amendments.
Even, says Teixeira, having a ministry is no longer so advantageous, with the possibility of the parliamentarian transferring resources to the electoral base. The lack of popularity also contributes to scare the allies. “The problem is the lack of political articulation combined with voracity for amendments. The effect is devastating,” he says.
“Lula will reach 2026 with the allies who have always been with him, and such a large front will not be repeated.” Teixeira says that the case of IOF sacrament the worsening of the executive’s relationship with the legislature. Earlier this year, (PSD-MG) left the position of president of the Senate having a close relationship with Lula, even making compliments in public to the agent, for the sanction of the state debt renegotiation project.
Already the relationship of the Chief Executive with (PP-AL), as mayor, was permeated by distrust. However, says Teixeira, agreements were fulfilled, which did not occur in the case of IOF. “The departure is the president himself to assume the role of articulating, because all the others have failed.”
