O Inter He reviewed inflation expectations to 2025. In the June report, the Bank pointed out that it expects the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) to terminate the year by 4.9%. Previously, the forecast was 5.3%up.
The new projection maintains the trend of falling inflation in the 2nd semester and is below market medians. According to Rafaela Vitória, inter-chief economist of Inter, this is due to the impact of restrictive monetary policy and the consequences on granting credit and decline domestic activity.
“For 2026, our base scenario is still inflation above the goal, despite the high level Selic, due to the fiscal risk and expectation of a new increase in fiscal stimulus in an election year, including the exemption of IR to salaries up to $ 5,000,” he said.
With the “bitter medicine” of the Central Bank now having more effect, Inter awaits the first cut in the Selic rate in 2025, at the meeting of the December Monetary Policy Committee (Copom).
“Despite the hardest copom minutes, reinforcing the message of high interest rates for a prolonged period, the deceleration of the activity and the most favorable exchange rate should contribute to a higher than expected divestment in the second half, which should allow the start of cuts this year,” said the economist in the report.
Inter projects that Selic will end 14.50% per year by 2025, while by 2026 the expected percentage is 12%.
“A greater fiscal discipline and a lower uncertainty political scenario, with greater predictability about the necessary adjustment from 2027, can contribute to the re -impact of expectations allowing a higher reduction of Selic,” he concluded.
