For months, there was talk of Kiev of a long-awaited Russian offensive that would aim to snap up more regions of eastern Ukraine. So far, it has been nothing extraordinary, but the Russians have achieved some gains and greatly reinforced the number of troops in some zones.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to seek territorial gains as ceasefire conversations go back to the background. Last week, it reaffirmed what has long been one of its main ways to justify its unpaid invasion.
“I consider that the Russian and Ukrainian peoples are one people,” he said. “In this sense, all Ukraine is ours.”
Even so, Ukrainians have released counterattacks in some areas and are rapidly developing a national weaponry industry. And the Russian Economy in War Time is facing stronger contrary winds.
Russian troops are trying to advance in various areas of the 1,200 kilometers of the front line. Ukrainian chief commander Oleksandr Syrskyi, said this week that there are now 111,000 Russian troops only in the front line – near the city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk, where there are at least 50 clashes a day. According to the Ukrainian staff, in December last year, about 70,000 Russian soldiers were present in the area.
Syrskyi also stated that Russian infiltration in the northern region of Sumy had been locked. The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington -based reflection group, says the Ukrainian forces have recovered some territory in Sumy and that the rhythm of Russian advances in the region has slowed.
“We can say that the wave of attempts at a ‘summer offensive’ launched by the enemy from Russian territory is disappearing,” said Syrskyi.
But the panorama is mixed. In recent days, the attacks of the Russian infantry have gained ground on the border between the regions of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk. The Russian Ministry of Defense said on Saturday that another village, Zirka, had been taken.
Deepstate, an open source Ukrainian analyst, said “Ukrainian defenses continue to collapse quickly and the enemy is making significant advances (…) with constant attacks” in this area.
Kremlin has long insisted that their campaign will continue until all the Oriental regions of Donetsk, Zaporizehzia and Kherson hold. (Already occupies all regions except a part of Luhansk).
At the current pace of progress, this would take many years. But with the Trump administration apparently less committed to conducting ceasefire negotiations, the conflict seems to drag on by the end of the year and until 2026.
The three -dimensional battlefield is now an unlikely combination of ingenious special operations conducted by drones and very basic infantry attacks.
At one end of the spectrum, Ukraine’s bold attacks in early June, Russian strategic bombers used operated drones from deep truck trucks – a mission that slaughtered about a dozen aircraft used to launch missiles against Ukraine.
On Saturday, the Ukrainian security service reported another drone attack that, he said, caused major damage to a Russian Air Base in Crimea.
On the other hand, Russian soldiers on foot and motorcycles – sometimes in groups of a dozen or less – advance to abandoned villages in eastern Ukraine, with drones to protect themselves, but without armored on site. It is an approach that is forcing a change in Ukrainian tactics: for smaller fortified positions. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umarov said last week that the defenses were being camouflaged to adapt to the ground and made smaller to avoid detection.
A WAR DOS DONES
While infantry defends or takes territory, drones continue to play a more important role in configuring conflict. Russians are manufacturing cheap and massive drones, designed to overload the air defenses and allow some of their missiles to pass through. Russians have increasingly used this tactic to reach Ukrainian cities, especially Kiev, which has suffered considerable damage and more civilians in recent weeks.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday that at night, “477 drones were in our heavens, most of which Russian-Iranian shaheds, along with 60 missiles of various types. Russians were attacking everything that sustains life.”
Russians use “up to 500 shaheds (from Iranian conception) per night, combining them with ballistic and cruise missiles – in order to exhaust our air defenses,” says Umarov.
Zelensky reiterated the request for more Patriot missile batteries and other western systems, which Trump said last week that the US “should consider” due to large -scale attacks on Ukrainian cities.
Zelensky stated that Ukraine is willing to buy patriots directly or through the fund created by the mineral agreement between the US and Ukraine.
Both sides are producing drones of all kinds to an astonishing rhythm. Ukraine security service estimates that Russia is producing about 200 Shahed Iranian conception drones and has an inventory of about 6,000, as well as about 6,000 drones of disgust. Last week, the Russians used more than 23,000 small kamikaze drones on the front line, according to the Ukrainian staff.
It is an endless race in terms of conception and production. Syrskyi recently stated that Russia has developed an advantage in fiber optic controlled drones, which are harder to follow and intercep.
The drone war is a “constant intellectual struggle – the enemy regularly changes the algorithms and Ukraine adapts the tactics in response,” said Umarov. “The solutions that showed great effectiveness at the beginning of the war lost it over time as the enemy has changed its tactic.”
For its part, Ukraine is increasing the production of long-range drones it has used to attack Russian infrastructures such as aerodromes, refineries and transport. Umberov said that “tens of thousands” will be produced in addition to more than four million combat drones this year.
Long -term
Both parties continue to build defense industries that allow them to continue to fight – even though the scale of Russian production far exceeds that of Ukraine. The huge Russian Rostec military conglomerate is producing about 80% of the equipment used against Ukraine.
Its executive director, Sergey Chemezov, said at a meeting with Putin this month, that Rostec production has in accordance with 2021 and that its revenues have increased last year to an impressive $ 46 billion.
But there are black clouds on the horizon. The Russian Military Budget represents about 40% of its total public expense – more than 6% of its GDP. This fired inflation, and Putin acknowledged last week that growth this year would be “much more modest” to combat prices. He even suggested that defense expenses would decrease next year.
A high Russian employee, Maksim Reschenikov, who is Minister of Economic Development, said that “based on current business sentiment, it seems to me that we are on the verge of the transition to recession.”
Russian Central Bank director Elvira Nabiullina disagreed with Resetnikov, but warned that financial shock absorbers, such as the National Reserve Fund, are almost exhausted.
“We have to understand that many of these resources have already been used,” he told the São Petersburg International Forum.
Putin himself acknowledged the risk, saying that although some experts predict stagnation, it should not be allowed under any circumstances. ”
Although the long -term prognosis for Russia may be dark – economic and demographically – can remain in the short term to finance an army of more than half a million men in Ukraine or near its border, traveling a few kilometers here and there. Despite hundreds of thousands of casualties, the Russian armed forces can still generate forces far higher than those of Ukraine.
Putin said last week that his eyes still have the prize: “We have a saying … where the foot of a Russian soldier Pisa, is ours.”
