Globally, humanity is producing more food than ever, but harvesting is focused on a handful of “barns”, and not even the richest agricultural lands in America will escape the climate collapse. There are good news for Russia, Canada and East Asian, bad for the rest of the world.
Some of the most productive agricultural lands in the world, including the main producing regions of Russia and Ukraine (responsible for more than 1/3 of the world exports of wheat and barley) and the United States, are on their way to sharp falls on the harvests due to climate change.
These are More noticia Not only for farmers, but also for the entire world population, especially since it becomes more difficult and expensive to feed a more populous and hungry world, it says.
According to a new one, published last week in the journal Nature, in a moderate scenario of emissions of greenhouse gases, six fundamental basic cultures summer a decline of 11.2 % until the end of the centurycompared to a world without warming-even if farmers try to adapt.
The largest falls are not occurring in the poorest agricultural lands and marginal, but in places that They are already large food producers – Regions such as the American midwest, which were blessed with good soil and ideal climate to cultivate basic products like corn and soy.
However, when the ideal climate that blesses these ultra-productive regions becomes “less than ideal“Agricultural productivity can suffer drastic reductions. The extreme climate has already damaged several crops this year: floods have destroyed rice in Tajiquistan, Cucumbers in Spain and bananas in Australia.
In this spring, stormy storms In the United States caused millions of euros in damage to cultures. In past years, the harsh heat It led to large declines in the production of blueberries, olives and grapes.
And as the weather changes, the increased average temperatures And changes in precipitation patterns are prepared to reduce income, while climate events such as dried and flooding that reach larger extremes can eliminate harvests more often.
“It is not a mystery that climate change will affect our food production,” he says Andrew Hultgrenresearcher at the University of Illinois and first author of the study. “That It is the sector of the economy most exposed to the climate“.
Farmers are doing what they can“Testing different varieties of crops that can better resist changes in climate, altering the moment when they sow, adjusting the use of fertilizers and water, and investing in infrastructure such as water reservoirs.”
The question is whether these adaptations can continue to follow the rhythm of climate change. To discover it, Hultgren and his team have analyzed culture and climate data from 54 countries worldwide, collected since the 1940s.
Researchers specifically analyzed the way farmers adapted to changes in the climate that have occurred in recent decades, focusing on corn, wheat, rice, cassava, sorghum and soy-crops that, combined, provide 2/3 of calories consumed humanity.
In his article, Andrew Hultgren and his team report that, in general, adaptation can achieve Delay some culture losses due to climate change, But not all.
The decrease in our food production It can be devastating: For each degree Celsius of heating on the planet, global food production probably will decrease 120 calories per person per day.
This decrease will happen even considering that climate change can make growth stations longer And that more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can encourage plant growth, the study authors say.
No moderate scenario of emissions of greenhouse gases – between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius heating to 2100 – eventual adaptations and productivity improvements They would only compensate 1/3 of the losses of cultures no world.
“Look at A future 3 ° C warmer than in 2000corresponds to about a loss of 13 % in daily caloric consumption recommended per capita, ”says Hultgren.“ It’s as if everyone stopped taking breakfast… About 360 calories for each person, for each day. ”
But there is good news… for some countries
Investigators also mapped where the largest falls – and increaseS – of cultures will probably occur as the weather warms up.
Encompassing the most productive agricultural lands in the world are harshly affected, Colder countries like Russia and Canada They are on their way to having larger harvests. The map below shows red the regions where crop yields may decrease, and the blue where it may increase:
Hultgren, A. / Nature
The results complicate the idea that poor countries will have the greatest losses in food production due to climate change. According to the study, food producing countries richer and more can record the largest falls.
However, Poor countries will still be affectedsince many cultures are commodities internationally marketed, and the largest producers are exporters.
A smaller harvest means higher food prices all over the world. Less rich regions too face their own declines of cultures due to natural catastrophes and climate change, albeit in smaller scales.
About that, The global population is growingthough much more slowly than in the past. It is a Revenue for more food insecurityfor more people.
Rice is an exception to this trend. The global crops of this cereal probably will increase in a warmer world: Rice is a versatile culture and, unlike other basic products, benefits higher night temperatures.
“The rice reveals itself to Most Adapted Cultureprotected from great losses even in the future with higher global temperatures – which is an advantage for regions such as South and Southeast Asia, ”says Hultgren.
While climate change can impair the food supply chain, the how we make foodin turn, it also harms the climate. About 1/3 of gas emissions with human greenhouse effect comes from food production; just under half of this of meat and dairy products.
That’s why food production has to be the front line The way we adapt to climate change and reduce increased temperatures globally, Hultgren concludes.
