“The key to changes in Iran has always been the Iranian people. In the near future the role of women will be particularly critical » It was foreseen by speaking to Vima, on the day of the announcement of the truce between and on Tuesday, Ali AnsariProfessor of Iranian History, Founder and Director of the Institute of Iranian Studies at St. Andrew University in Scotland, and related to the family of the last Shah of Persia – his mother, as he explained to us, ‘He is the first cousin of the Empress’meaning the widow of the Shah, Pharah Pachlavi.
“To those who are frustrated that the 12 -day war did not bring a tangible change, I would recommend that they would not be in a hurry. Change can indeed come to Iran. But not as long as bombs fall ».
Is the “window” for changing regime in Iran?
“The collapse of the regime was and remains possible. Until the bombings on either side are finally terminated – the truce is fragile.
Only then will serious questions ask about the sequel. President Trump expressed concern about the chaos that can be caused if the political system collapses in Iran. I am sure that Iran’s neighbors also share the same concerns. “
The Wall Street Journal, in the scenario of regime change, predicts the revolution guards to be favored.
“Disagree. I think the guards of the revolution have suffered serious damage. “
The son of your last Shah and cousin, Reza Pachlavi, however, says he is ready to take power in Iran.
“I think there is a number of options for the transition of power. The most likely at first is the collapse of the regime or at least the failure of its ability to operate. Beyond that, there are many different versions of power that may arise, including his son Shah. Whatever it happens, the transition will be difficult and quite complicated.
The power and the stability of the Islamic Republic, however, were more fragile than they believed in the West before the war broke out. . While since 1979 its resilience has been based on the ability to absorb all shocks as the Iranian economy has still been able to withstand since 2009 it has been malfunctioning and extremely fragile. Especially after the mobilizations for Macha Amini and the female scarf in 2022, the status of the regime to absorb crises has declined further. “
Will Iranian citizens, in particular women, play a role in the changes that will take place in the country? Before the war, most of the people are believed to have wanted the regime to overthrow.
“. The change of regime must emerge from the inside. To say that changing the regime is one of your war goals makes you hostage to fortune. In the near future, the role of women will be particularly critical. Women of women.
5% of the female population in the country, a total of five million, refuses to wear Hijab. Change can now come, but not as long as bombs fall. And Iran must abandon its nuclear program, all its nuclear ambitions and, therefore, certainly the enrichment of uranium. “
