For nearly four decades, Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sailed through internal dissent, economic crises, and wars, but unprecedented attacks from Israel and the United States to Iran mark their biggest challenge so far.
What he decides next will have enormous meaning for Iran and the rest of the Middle East. But your options are few. It is a great test for an 86 -year -old man with poor health and unsuccessful designated.
The extent of the damage inflicted to the Khamenei regime is still uncertain, but they have reached the center of power. The body of Islamic Revolutionary Guard, a fundamental military force that advocates the ideals of the Islamic Revolution, has lost a series of experienced commanders. Iran’s nuclear facilities, where the country enriched uranium, were severely damaged, and the leading scientists boosting the advancement of the nuclear program were murdered.
Khamenei regional armed groups were already severely weakened by Israeli attacks. In addition, billions spent on the regime’s nuclear program were lost in 12 days – another economic blow added to sanctions and increased inflation.
The Israeli attacks were so deep that Khamenei was hidden during the days of conflict, signaling a concern for his safety. He also did not attend the national funerals of military commanders and murdered nuclear scientists.
Only several days after the ceasefire came into force does the Supreme Leader sent a video message to the Iranian people.
“This president (Donald Trump) exposed this truth,” said Khamenei. He also predictably stated Victoria about Israel and the US – a message that triggered Trump’s forceful response.
“Look, you are a man of great faith, a highly respected man in your country,” said Trump. “You have to tell the truth. You have been beaten.”
Once an agile leader who used political and economic maneuvers to ensure the survival of his regime, the elderly Khamenei now rules a rigid and erosion state. With the uncertainty about his succession, the state of his nuclear program and the strength of his allied groups, he faces a critical choice: rebuilding the same regime or opening himself in a way that can threaten his permanence in power.
Unrivaled
He faced the difficult task of resurrecting a nation -fractured economy and society that in 1989 was destroyed and isolated by the war with Iraq.
He had to deal with internal dissent and rivalries within Iran’s clerical circles, facing international economic pressures, while preserving the revolutionary ideals of sovereignty and independence.
He imposed a harsh internal repression during the decline in public support, especially when protests took the country for weeks after the death of a young woman by the “morality police”, and during mass protests in 2009 due to alleged electoral fraud.
Exiled Iranian groups have established media 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, transmitting advertising contrary to the regime, and separatist groups leaked the secrets of the nuclear program. Israel’s espionage agencies seem to be deeply infiltrated in Iran, murdering nuclear scientists and launching cyber attacks against Iranian infrastructure.
Profound
Given the unprecedented pressure and increasingly scarce options, Khamenei, which previously issued a Fatwa waiving the development of nuclear weapons, may consider arming Iran’s nuclear program as its best form of protection. Parliament signaled last week to suspend cooperation with the United Nations Nuclear Surveillance body.
The development of a nuclear bomb would be a major turnaround in Iran’s public position – Israel says that his offensive aimed to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, but Tehran has always insisted that his program is peaceful.
When asked if he would consider Iran again bombarding if intelligence reports concluded that Tehran could enrich uranium at worrying levels, Trump said, “Of course, no doubt, absolutely.”
But Trump stated that “the last thing” Iran “is thinking is a nuclear weapon.”
One possibility for Khamenei is to take advantage of the rare unit in Iran against Israel’s attacks, for example, introducing new reforms. In his speech, he said the moment is of collective strength.
“By the grace of God, a nation of almost 90 million remained united – united in voice and purpose – shoulder to shoulder, without any divisions in demands or intentions,” he said.
But Khamenei may have an appetite limited by a fundamental political and economic reformulation. This conservatism can also prevent another option – embracing a neighboring region and looking for a new deal with Washington.
Iran’s Arab neighbors historically saw the country’s expansionist policies as a threat, but more recently they chose to repair the ties with Tehran and expressed the desire to cooperate to avoid conflict.
But Khamenei’s distrust of the West, deepened by the revocation of a nuclear treaty in Trump’s first term and the unprecedented attacks of Israel, leaves uncertainty about how it will address any future negotiations.
In an attempt to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table, the Trump government discussed the possibility of helping Iran to access up to $ 30 billion to build a nuclear civil energy production program, relieving sanctions and releasing Iranian funds, said the CNNciting four sources familiar with the subject. Trump denied the report.
But if Trump wants an agreement with Iran, their unorthodox public messages to Khamenei, they could make negotiations unfeasible, Iranian authorities said.
“If President Trump is honest in wanting an agreement, he should put aside the disrespectful and unacceptable tone in relation to Iran’s Supreme Leader, the great Aiatola Khamenei, and stop injuring his millions of sincere followers,” Iranian Foreign Minister ABBAS ARAGHCHI posted to X on Friday (27).
In his last speech, the Supreme Leader designed an image of inflexible resilience, signaling to the United States and Israel – both nuclear powers – that military action alone cannot dismantle its damaged but still fortified republic. But with the unclear succession of his government and the loss of his powerful influences, he now faces the task of ensuring the survival of the Islamic Republic he has inherited.
