Prior to the start of the Club World Cup, Palmeiras and Fluminense had only 0.3% and 0% chances, respectively, to keep the champion cup of the United States competition, according to the projections held by the supercomputer of Opta Analyst, a company that specializes in sports statistics.
With the two teams having advanced to the quarterfinals of the tournament, leaving the Botafogo and Inter Milan path, the estimates were updated, resulting in a significant increase in the likelihood of the Cup coming to Brazil on July 13.
In the case of Palmeiras, the calculations – made from 10,000 simulations – indicate that Alviverde now has 2.88% chances of being champion.
The statistics company figures point out that, in the quarterfinals against Chelsea, Palmeiras appears with 24.63% possibilities to pass to the next phase, while the English team has 75.37%.
With the eliminations of Inter Milan and Manchester City, Chelsea, which is on the same side of the key, was the team that made the biggest leap in the likelihood of moving to the final, from 21.2% to 57.99%.
In a semifinal hypothetical against Fluminense or Al Hilal, Abel Ferreira’s team advances to the decision in 13.08% of the simulations.
Regarding the carioca tricolor, OPTA projections point out that the team now has 1.62% possibility of being world champion in the United States.
Fluminense is ahead only of the Mexican Monterrey, who still faces Borussia Dortmund in the round of 16 on Tuesday (1st). The team of defender Sergio Ramos raises the champion cup in only 0.23% of the simulations.
In the duel of the quarterfinals against Al Hilal, the simulations indicate that Renato Gaúcho’s team advances in 39.42% of the projected scenarios, against 60.58% in favor of the Saudi team.
Advancing to the semifinal, Fluminense has 9.42% likely to beat Palmeiras or Chelsea to follow the decision.
“Perhaps it was neglected before the tournament the calendar advantage for Brazilian clubs. With only 12 rounds of their season 38 games of the Brazilian Championship completed, Brazilian teams arrived at the rested competition, unlike many European clubs coming from long and exhausting campaigns. This freshness has been evident in their performances so far,” said OPTA.
Also according to Opta Power Rankings, the confrontation between Fluminense and Inter Milan was the biggest disparity of the teams in the knockout phase of the club-while the Italian team was considered the seventh strongest men’s soccer team on the planet, the tricolor was only 181º, being the worst classification in the knockout phase.
In addition, Fluminense’s dominant performance and historical victory over the current Italian and European runner-up 2-0, with pipe and Hercules goals, was the third most unlikely result of the tournament according to supercomputer prognostures, with only 7.5% likely to happen.
It only is behind the 1-1 draw between Auckland City and Boca Juniors (5.4%), and Botafogo’s 1-0 win against PSG (Paris Saint-Germain) (6.4%).
The fourth most unlikely result, with 9.9%, was the 4-3 win of Al Hilal (70th ranking) on Manchester City (4th).
Pep Guardiola’s team was appointed as one of the main favorites to the title, behind only PSG.
The French team follows the main candidate for the title, now with 26.86% chances – 20.6% before the start of the round of 16. City and Inter Milan then appeared with 20.4% and 12.4%, respectively.
Now Chelsea emerges as the second largest favorite, with 26.44%. Next comes Bayern Munich (15.94%), Real Madrid (11.87%), Borussia Dortmund (6.43%), Al Hilal (4.52%) and Juventus (3.21%).
Flu’s victory over Inter leave Brazil in advantage against Europeans in the Cup
Fluminense’s victory over Inter Milan for now the clash between Brazilian and rivals of Europe in this edition of the tournament. Now Brazil is in advantage.
To date, there have been seven clashes since the group stage, with three wins of Brazilian teams, two of European representatives and two draws.
Botafogo’s triumph over PSG was the first of a South American club about a European in an official game since 2012, when Corinthians won the World Cup against Chelsea.
Since then, four Brazilians have tried their luck in the decision: Grêmio lost to Real Madrid (2017), Flamengo fell to Liverpool (2019), Palmeiras was surpassed by Chelsea (2021), and Fluminense was defeated by Manchester City (2023).
With Flamengo’s victory over Chelsea, 3-1, also for the first phase of the competition held in the United States, only Palmeiras has not yet triumphed against Europeans in this edition – premiere, drew without goals with Porto. Flamengo, however, was eliminated by Bayern Munich in the round of 16.
Brazil x Europe at the Club World Cup
First phase
Palmeiras 0 x 0 Porto
PSG 0 x 1 Botafogo
Botafogo 0 x 1 Atletico Madrid
Flamengo 3 x 1 Chelsea
Fluminense 0 x 0 Borussia Dortmund
Octaves
Inter Milan 0 x 2 Fluminense
Flamengo 2 x 4 Bayern Munich
Victories of Brazil: 3
Victories of Europe: 2
Tie: 2
Goals scored by Brazilians: 8
Goals scored by Europeans: 6
