The beginning of the hurricane season in the Mexican Pacific keeps the authorities and residents of several coastal states in suspense of the evolution of tropical systems. The last one, Flossie, has climbed to the category of Hurricane level 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, intensifying concern about possible land impacts. The news, confirmed by the National Meteorological Service of Mexico, highlights the importance of closely following its trajectory and civil protection recommendations.
Flossie, who has become the sixth system with a name in the Pacific so far this season, represents a significant threat, mainly because of the copious rains, the strong winds and the high waves that drags with him. Its evolution underlines the forecast of an active cyclonic season in this basin, as anticipated with a considerable number of expected phenomena. The rapid intensification of Flossie to Hurricane of category 1 is a reminder of volatility and destructive power that these meteorological phenomena can reach in a short time.
Current situation and characteristics of Hurricane Flossie
According to the latest report of the Mexican National Meteorological Service, issued at 9:00 p.m. (Central Mexico) of the past [Insertar día correspondiente, por ejemplo, lunes], Flossie was strengthened, officially reaching category 1 of Hurricane. At that precise moment, the center of the system was located 220 kilometers south-southwest of Punta San Telmo, in the state of Michoacán, already 280 kilometers south of the city of Manzanillo, in Colima.
The measurements registered by the weather authorities indicated that Flossie presented maximum sustained winds of 120 kilometers per hour, with streaks that could exceed that figure, reaching 150 km/h. This wind intensity is sufficient to cause significant damage to weak structures, start trees and cause power supply cuts. The translation speed of the hurricane was 17 km/h, and its main movement was directed to the west-norbic. This displacement address is key to determining which areas will be most affected in the short and medium term.
The fact that the system has reached the category of hurricane, even if it is the lowest (category 1), implies a considerable increase in its capacity to generate adverse impacts on areas under their influence. The energy contained in the nucleus of a hurricane of this magnitude is substantial, and its cloud bands and the wind field extend several kilometers from its center.
Immediately planned impacts and areas under alert
The proximity of Hurricane Flossie to the Mexican coasts, combined with the extension of its cloud bands and the large amount of moisture that drags the ocean, will generate severe weather conditions in several regions during the next few hours. The main risk associated with Flossie on land is rainfall. The National Meteorological Service has issued alerts by torrential rainsestimating accumulations of between 150 and 250 millimeters, especially concentrated on the coast of the state of Guerrero and in southern Michoacán.
In addition to these extreme rains, they are expected heavy rains (with records of 75 to 150 mm) in Colima, as well as in the west and south of Jalisco, and in the north and southwest of Oaxaca. This volume of water in a relatively short period of time represents a direct threat of floods and other associated problems.
The wind will also be an important risk factor in the coastal areas closest to the hurricane. Strong winds are expected, with speeds of 60 to 80 km/hy gusts that could reach 100 km/h, on the coast of Guerrero, Michoacán and Colima. On the coast of Oaxaca and Jalisco, although further from the nucleus, considerable winds will also be felt, 30 to 40 km/h with streaks of 50 to 70 km/h.
Another significant impact is the High waves. The waves could reach heights of 5 to 6 meters on the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacán and Colima, which represents an extreme danger for navigation, fishing activities and coastal infrastructure. On the coast of Oaxaca and Chiapas, the waves will also be remarkable, with heights of 2.5 to 3.5 meters.
Before this panorama, the authorities have established Prevention and Surveillance Areas for tropical storm effects. The prevention zone extends from Punta San Telmo, Michoacán, to Playa Péro, Jalisco, indicating that tropical storm conditions are expected in these areas. The surveillance zones, meanwhile, cover from Zihuatanejo, Guerrero, to the east of Punta San Telmo, and from the north of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Jalisco, indicating areas where the conditions of tropical storm are possible in the next few hours.
Planned trajectory, associated risks and context of the season
The trajectory that Flassie follows, moving to the west-northwest to 17 km/h, suggests that the hurricane will tend to move inside sea, progressively moving away from the Mexican coast in the coming days. However, this does not mean that the danger disappears completely. The external cloud bands and the waves generated by the system will continue to affect the coastal areas near their path for a while, even if the hurricane center does not impact directly on land.
The main persistent risk, even as the center moves away, are torrential and intense rains. These rainfall, especially in areas with mountainous relief or prior soil saturation, can trigger landslides and landslidesas well as sudden floods of rivers and streamswhich could lead to overflows and floods in low and urban areas. Civil Protection authorities are placing special emphasis on the prevention of these secondary hydrometeorological phenomena, which often cause more human damage and losses than the wind.
Flossie enrolls in the context of a hurricane season in the Pacific that is expected to be active. As a sixth cyclone, follow other systems such as Alvin, Barbara, Cosme, Laila and Erick. According to the forecasts for the current season, the formation of up to 20 tropical cyclones with name in the East Pacific is anticipated, and it is estimated that between four and six of them they could reach the category of greater hurricane (category 3 or higher), which raises the alert level and the need for preparation throughout the region.
In addition, although Flossie is the main focus on the Pacific, the monitoring of tropical systems in both basins is constant. Recently, in the Atlantic, the tropical storm Barry dissipated, which had also been subject to surveillance for its possible rainfall on the Mexican coast. The simultaneous or consecutive activity in the Pacific and the Atlantic underlines the complexity of the meteorological panorama in Mexico during the hurricane season.
Given the evolution of Flossie and the associated risks, the Mexican authorities reiterate the call to the population of the affected areas to remain informed through the official channels, avoid risk activities on the coast and in rivers areas, and strictly follow the indications and protocols established by Civil Protection to safeguard lives and goods.
