The cradle of Culture and Empire, or has been the most important crossroads between Asia and Europe since ancient times. It is a neighborhood full of contradictions and lycophilia, stable and opportunistic alliances, an ever -changing field of competition, especially since the early 20th century, when the powerful of the time shaped the Turkish “great patient”.
At that time, Persia was already in the British zone of influence and exploitation, with Arab history distinct, religious and political identity, which was reflected at the border designed by British, French and Russians. These borders are largely valid to this day, with former colonists confined to the roles of observers – even cobras – to global competition between and.
The field is rearranged after the “twelve -day war”, as described by Israel’s conflict with Iran by the US president as a pacifist and referee. There could be no more clear parallel to Washington’s designs in the area.
They closed an equally important chapter as the “war of the six days”, namely the Arab -Israeli war of 1967, in which Israel prevailed of Egypt, Syria and Jordan, occupying the Gaza Strip, Golan’s highlands and Western highlands.
In the Israeli-Iran war, the demand was not territorial, but the disintegration of the Tehran regime that maintains close ties with Russia and China.
The Sunni Arab neighbors, who maintain – wanting and not – good relations with Shiite Iran, saw the Iranian mid -range Iranian missiles in the midst of Qatar. Although there was a warning from Tehran and there was no blows to any of the US bases in the wider area, the Gulf regimes (from Kuwait to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) are still concerned about their stability, their role. The future of the weakened Lebanon, the rebels in Yemen, the export of the Islamic Revolution, will be judged by the survival or not of the mulades regime.
Putin chose not to open his papers
His Russia was confined to appeals for self -restraint, as well as a mediating services publicly rejected by Trump. Although Moscow was based on military aid by Iran (drones and missiles) to face Ukrainian counterattack, it has now rushed to clarify that the bilateral strategic cooperation agreement with Tehran does not include military assistance, dismantling any of the hopes.
Is the Kremlin’s attitude proof of weakness after the strategic defeat in Syria should Putin and Trump bar a “exchange of plots” in Ukraine and Iran, which will go through an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program with control guarantees?
However, this was also predicted by the international agreement from which Trump unilaterally withdrew in his first term. The only Iranian nuclear power plant was built in Buser by Russian companies and remains in operation with the supervision of hundreds of Russian techniques. It seems that Putin chose not to play (and not burn) other papers now.
Beijing’s distances and the Taiwan message
Even longer distances from the war was held by China, which supports its economic growth in mass imports of cheap Iranian. 14% of the crude oil introduced by China comes from Iran, over 50% comes from the Middle East. Beijing condemned Israel’s attack, but emphasized the economic dimension and the need to remain open. The weakening of the war and the new US military involvement are not necessarily negative developments for China, to the extent that it remains in the stupid and as long as the channels of its economic penetration in the Gulf countries remain open.
Beijing sees foreign policy “more through a lens of strategic pragmatism than ideological solidarity” estimated Al Jazeera’s Evanzelle Chengresearcher at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Singapore. Even if Iran’s crisis has revealed the boundaries of Chinese potential for intervention, it is certain that China is not in a hurry, nor is it reacting. However, the US missile blow against Iran is at the same time a warning in Beijing to keep his hands away from Taiwan. Whether this message was realized by Beijing will be shown by time.
Why does Turkey get out of the short term
In the short term, Turkey comes out of the crisis, as long as Iran’s impairment further strengthens its own role as regional force. But the bombing of Iranian installations by the US is a message for all nuclear ambitions, especially for them – such as Turkey – based in Russia to implement them (construction of nuclear power plants). The ‘intimacy’ between Trump and It could spoil very quickly if the Turkish president in practice intentions Israel’s monopoly on nuclear weapons in the Middle East.
However, a key issue for the US is to stabilize the region, lift obstacles and operate the India -Middle Eastern – Europe (IMEEC) commercial corridor (IMEEC) that would bypass the Suez Canal and operate as a counterbalance to the Chinese initiative a zone of one road (BRI).
the control of which Trump was willing to take it into a Middle Eastern Riviera. The US, their Arab allies and Israel are now called upon to find a “golden cut” that – though and when it is found – will be presented with a humanitarian cloak, for the salvation of the Palestinian people and the rebuilding of the area.
Until then, Gaza will continue to bleed in the name of its elimination which, with its attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, put a burlap in an area full of flammable materials.
