If there is a ceasefire in Ukraine, “the next Russian war will be with… Ukraine”

Speculation about attack on a NATO country seems to be an attempt to “go beyond what has happened in Ukraine to other countries.”

A Russia continues in; And the fear over a attack more generalized of the Russians. More specifically, there are growing fears in Europe that Russia will challenge the collective security of Born, attacking one country of the North Atlantic organization.

The recent increase in speculation about a Russian attack on NATO seems to be an attempt to “go beyond what has happened in Ukraine in recent years to other European countries,” begins by analyzing Maksim Samorukov on the portal.

Maksim Samorukov is an investigator of, an institution in Germany that brings together the world’s leading experts on Russia – and focuses on major political challenges throughout the region after the invasion of Ukraine.

The expert finds Unlikely Vladimir Putin advance to another country without resolving the Ukrainian issue. Russia may agree with a ceasefire in Ukraine after “some partial success.” That is, to control some territory that is part of Ukraine.

But If there is a ceasefire, the next Russian war will be with… Ukraine, and not with Europe. “As long as Ukraine exists in its current form, it is hard to imagine that Russia is moving away and starting to attack the Latvia or any other country,” said Samorukov.

On the other hand, if there is a Greater Victory from Russia in Ukraine, “ Victory drunkennessIt can lead Moscow to press even more weak and divided Europe.

The expert recalled, in this context, that the Russian army is great and that the Russian economy depends on a prosperous military-industrial complex.

In the midst of speculation, there is a more constant subject: Russia testing NATO’s will to defend border cities in the Baltic countries – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

A few days ago, NATO in increasing investment in the defense of each member country; And this will also certainly influence Moscow’s future behavior.

“Europe is reinforcing its armed forces and is doing it to contain Russia. This will obviously cause Retaliative irritation in Russia And it will create pressure for it to react in the same coin or for Europe to stop rewarding before it happens, ”says Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center expert.

O caso kaliningrado

The investigator then focused on Kaliningrad, Russia’s famous enclave between Poland and Lithuania.

“How are you expected to navigate there? And logistics, since Estonia tries to inspect the oil tankers and everything else? And there is the problem of Russian exports through the Baltic Sea, for example, when Denmark claims to see if Russian tankers, the parallel fleet, fulfill the Danish environmental rules.”

It is “Obstructed access Kaliningrad, ”from Russia’s perspective, is a“ outrage that threatens the basic security of the nation. ”Samorukov warned that Kremlin may even conclude that Kaliningrad’s vulnerable position is equivalent to a blockade, which justifies a declaration of war.

“If Lithuania does not restore normal access to Kaliningrad, even through Belarus, Russia will be basically saying that will not answer for the consequences“, Explicou Maksim Samurov.

Then, if Russia tested NATO’s availability to defend Lithuania, Moscow could argue that seeking a corridor to the blocked Russian territory – and not undertake another occupation.

Overall, the growing concern about a possible Russian invasion in the Baltic States is linked to the perception that Russia is gaining in Ukraine. But the war entered a “Unpredictable phase”; The rhythm of the advance of the invasion, along with the possibility of “qualitative jumps” in combat, leaves the outcome of the conflict in an unknown.

One last factor: Vladimir Putin. “No one lives foreverand something can happen for a number of unpredictable reasons. A change in the top of Russia can transform everything. ”