Two years ago, before the first female World Cup with 32 teams, there was a wide expectation of unbalanced matches. The 2019 World Cup featured 24 teams, and the United States recorded a 13 goals about Thailand in the group stage. Certainly, including eight weaker teams would cause similar results?
Such fears were unfounded. It is true that the Netherlands beat Vietnam 7-0, but the difference between the elite and the Azaronas had diminished.
Traditionally strong nations, including Germany, Italy and Brazil, were eliminated in the group stage. Colombia, South Africa and Nigeria impressed. Minor nations, such as Haiti, New Zealand and Jamaica, were genuinely competitive. But what if there was another factor? What if the traditional elite is not as good as it should be?
This year’s female Eurocopa, which began this Wednesday (2) in Switzerland, will be the latest test.
Among the 16 teams that qualified for Euro 2025, half a dozen realistic candidates to the title, somewhat unevenly distributed to the four groups – in Group A, Spain in Group B, Germany and Sweden in Group C, and England, France and Holanda in Group D. Except the Holland, ranked 11th, are among the first 10 positions of FIFA (International Football Federation) Global ranking. However, none of the six seems to have improved significantly in the last two years.
Spain, world champion, is the favorite, but the team is not perfect. Spain produces more technically talented players, such as Putellas Alexia, than any nation, but has few relentless top scorers.
Germany has already dominated this competition, but underwent a great reconstruction. He is without several veterans, including striker Superstar Alexandra Popp. Exprigent defenders are missing.
Sweden won the first female Euro in 1984, a reflection of how the Nordic nations embraced women’s football before the powers of European men’s soccer. This initial advantage had lasting effects: for much of this century, Sweden had the best European women’s soccer league. Now that the most populous European nations are taking women’s football seriously, Sweden has fallen.
England won the euro at home three years ago, and women’s football in the country progressed significantly, but its preparation for the tournament was interrupted. The dropouts of goalkeeper Mary Earps and Defender Millie Bright, who started all the games of England campaigns in important finals in 2022 and 2023, suggested deeper problems with the team spirit.
The Dutch looks less fearsome today, mainly because Vivianne Miedema, who was the most complete striker in Europe, had three years of injuries.
Finally, France is forever a mystery, continually producing good players, but failing to work collectively. The French never reached the final of a euro – from a World Cup or Olympics. On paper, they have few weaknesses. In the field, they often disappoint.
So what is happening? Since Europe won the first, second and third places (Spain, England and Sweden) at the 2023 World Cup, and still seems that its best teams should be better? There are probably three major changes happening.
First, in Europe, the exceptional version of women’s football is now club football instead of international football.
When the United States was the dominant force, the structure of the National Women’s Football League guaranteed balance and competitiveness; The players were distributed relatively uniformly by the League, and the National Team remained the best team of the sport.
European football is very different, concentrating players in a handful of clubs. With more movement of players between countries, and more players being imported from outside Europe, the main clubs now accumulate talents and work at a higher level than international teams. As a result, passing from Champions League to Euro often looks like a step back in terms of quality.
The second factor is the tactical evolution of women’s football. It is less individualistic and increasingly collective.
A decade ago, it seemed enough for the big nations to trust some stars they would dominate. But now teams defend better as a unit, and opponents need integrated movement to break them. The teams press louder in the field, so opponents need trained passes to circumvent them.
These concepts can only be perfected in the training field, but at the international level, coaches do not have much time with their casts. It is a clear advantage that Spain can count on almost an entire starting team that plays together for Barcelona.
Finally, the rise of bad luck cannot be separated from all this because of course the best players in the world now come from a wider range of nations.
In the 2014 vote for the best player of the year of FIFA, the top ten players were from seven strong nations in women’s football: United States, Brazil, Japan, Germany, France, Spain and Sweden. For the equivalent vote a decade later, in December, the top 10 included Banda Banda from Zambia, Malawi Tabitha Chawinga and Jamaica’s Khadija Shaw.
The game has greatly improved in the last decade. The unbalanced draw will create major group stage clashes and allow at least one azarone to reach the semifinals.
In the end, one of the six favorites will probably win the euro, but the days of waiting for great victories are over.
