The holiday on Wall Street does not prevent investors from directing all their attention to the United States. The tariff war returns to the forefront. Five days are missing for the commercial truce and markets to expire, despite quoting in a maximum area, they were already on alert. Even more after Trump advanced that he plans to send between 10 and 12 letters to the commercial partners to notify them the imposition of tariffs from this Friday.
“The end of tariff uncertainty would be certain Special, ”says RBC analysts.
Although the bags have become accustomed, as far as possible, to the Republican information bombs, today’s news has been a jug of cold water. It highlights the retreat of Ibex 35, which yields 1.34%, somewhat higher than that of other European markets. The US partners have been negotiating agreements for weeks to soften commercial barriers, and the market did not expect last minute pacts, but the ghost of April 2 is still in the investor retina. In fact, the dollar, which moved away from the minimums against the euro to the heat of the good employment data of the United States on Thursday ,.
The falls in the Spanish Stock Exchange are widespread, but the punishment is greater than in the rest of Europe for the effect of the dividend payment of some values and by the high weight of the bank. The worst value of the day is Repsol, with a fall greater than 3% linked to both the slight decrease in oil (just 1%) and, above all, to the discount of the dividend that will be paid next Tuesday. In the same situation are Iberdrola and Redeia, which yield 2.8% and 3%, respectively. The and is the lower bank in a negative day for all financial entities. Other banks such as Santander or Bankinter register falls above 1.5%. It is the exception of Banco Sabadell, yes, it maintains a more positive tone with the tail wind of its macrodividndo. Lower 0.28% and widen the difference on the supply of the BBVA: it already quotes 12.7% more expensive.
Inditex, one of the heavyweights of the Spanish Stock Exchange, goes back about 2% due to the risk of cooling of its foreign markets. Only a few quotes manage to dodge the descents, and they do it very modestly. Among them, it stands out by energy, which rises 4.75%.
In the rest of European markets, red also sends red, with falls around 1%. The United Kingdom, which has been one of the few countries that have reached agreements to date does not escape sales. The FTSE drops 0.3%. “The fiscal situation of the United Kingdom remains precarious, especially after the recent changes of course regarding the announced spending cuts,” says Barclays analysts.
“The noise of commercial negotiations will cause investors to opt for prudence until this issue is clarified. A Trump grown by the success of the approval of their budget law can be a danger, although then recounts again,” says Juan José Fernández Figares, Link Management Investment Director. He has recognized that it will be difficult to reach a pact before the deadline; Hence the concern for Trump’s letters. As announced by Trump last April, in addition to a 10% universal tariff and 25% tax on steel and aluminum, imports from the region could face additional tax of up to 20%.
With commercial policy thinking about the minds of investors, both the expectations of reduction of types and the impact of the fiscal plan on the US deficit and the debt remain in the background. The solidity of the US labor market (in June 147,000 jobs were created, more than expected) reinforces the Jerome Powell approach to wait before lowering types. The market has annulled the limited probabilities it gave to a cut in July. Of course, Trump’s fiscal victory can redouble the pressure on Powell, aggravated in recent weeks after the American newspaper The Wall Street Journal will advance that Trump studies a plan to advance Powell’s succession in September or October. That is, a year earlier than expected in the mandate.
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