With the July 9th deadline approaching dangerously, and have not yet been able to reach an agreement on trade, while the possibility of imposing tough duties threatens the relationship between the two largest commercial partners on the planet.
Visible the risk of trade conflict
Talks between the United States and the European Union are at a critical point, as only a few days remain to prevent the imposition of the Trump government. If, by July 9, there is no agreement, European products imported to the US may be charged to duties up to 50%, with the EU threatening with countermeasures in US goods.
The United States threatens to impose a 17% duties on EU agricultural exports, according to a report by Financial Timesconfirming Donald Trump’s hard line against Brussels. The former president is calling for brave concessions, such as relaxing US companies and reducing the EU trade surplus, threatening 20% of general duties if there is no agreement until next Tuesday.
The last-minute requirement was made during recent negotiations in Washington, with EU Commander Maros Sefsovic, informing Member States’ ambassadors on US pressure.
The US -EU trademark is one of the strongest internationally, representing about 30% of global trade in goods, according to the European Council. In 2024, the total trade of goods and services between the two sides reached 1.68 trillion. euro. The EU had a surplus of 198 billion euros in goods, but a $ 148 billion deficit, recording a total surplus of $ 50 billion.
Slow negotiations – limited expectations
The negotiations are slowly moving, while the Commission sources estimate that the best possible outcome will be a political agreement with no technical details. The chairman of the European Commission described as “impossible” to reach an integrated agreement within the three -month suspension of duties, stating that “all means are on the table” in the event of failure. At the same time, both Germany and France say they want a “fast and clean” deal.
Trade Commissioner Maros Sefsovic said he had a “productive” week of talks in Washington, noting that the goal remains an “ambitious transatlantic trade agreement”. However, the American side appears more hesitant, with Finance Minister Scott Bessed declaring that “we will see what we can do” with the EU.
Skepticism and geopolitical uncertainty
Analysts express doubts about the possibility of a comprehensive agreement before the deadline. Former US Ambassador to the EU, Anthony Gardner, pointed out that even a mere draft agreement – the one who signed with the United Kingdom – will be difficult to include meaningful content.
Teneo’s Carsten Nickel believes that a minimum political context that will give time for further negotiations is the greatest that the EU can hope for, perhaps with the acceptance of a 10%basic duty. But even such a settlement will not eliminate uncertainty: “Whatever agreement that exists, it will remain vulnerable to Washington attitude changes,” he warns.
Although the possibility of European countermeasures is existing, Nickel believes that the EU will move carefully, even if the US proceeds to fully implement duties next week.
At the same time, US officials are cautious about the possible agreement. Finance Minister Scott Bessed was limited to saying that “we will see what we can do” with the EU.
