There are two rival positions in the interpretation of the current crisis in. The former maintains that coalition presidentialism has run out and lost its functionality due to the weakening of the executive. The result is the fragmentation of the executive support coalition, unable to implement its agenda. This dynamic is seen as the product of the progressive executive by the conservative legislature.
The rival alternative is superior. It argues that our presidentialism has become, the President, the president has effectively lost power, the congress increased his prerogatives, above all, budgetary. And the legislature has gained autonomy after the creation of the campaign fund e. But it argues that the background problem is the monopolistic management of the government coalition and a scarce sharing of power. on the subject in which I defend this last argument. But she doesn’t realize the ongoing crisis. A conjunctural crisis is not explained only in terms of the country’s institutional macro functioning.
The fundamental question is why this crisis has sharpened it at the present time? After all, there was no institutional change in the rules that have presided over relationships since 2023. Nor inflection in the form of coalition management. Or change in the ideological preferences of the actors. What’s more, the first half of the presidential term was marked by cooperation (eg Pec da Transition, the tax framework and the tax reform). What happened then?
There were changes, but in the non -constitutional powers of the president and his party powers, to use jargon. PT’s performance was terrible in the 2024 municipal elections, even though it was an incumbent. On the other hand, approval the government plummeted, (02/2025) and, with disapproval remaining above 40%. But the decisive explanatory variable is the election of 2026. The theory points out that the electoral imperative impacts the center and center-right parties more. The evidence is eloquent. With parliamentarians, the favorite to win the elections became the opposition candidate.
35% of them (in May 2024 was 43%). It is perceived as losing potential. A wearing duck. This factor launched the coalition stampede and support for rival candidates. This implies a crucial dispute in the election year, converting the budget into zero sum, such as.
The stampede is the cause and consequence of worsening in government evaluation: 51% of deputies consider it negative, against only 18% that judge it positive. This scenario does not result from the positions of governors or oppositionists, whose evaluations remain stable – 96% of opponents evaluate negatively, while 71% of governors have a positive view. The inflection is due to independent self-declared deputies, who represent 27% of the House.
The Executive when it has more party powers, greater congruence of preferences between the Government and Median Congress coalition; greater proportionality in the allocation of ministries and greater presidential popularity.
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