The rhythm of increased semi -elaborate and industrialized food prices It has decreased and should contribute to the cooling of inflation now, but the perspective for groups in the rest of the year is uncertain and inhibits down revisions in market projections for the variation of IPCA (National Consumer Price Index) em 2025.
The necessary conditions for foods that suffer some degree of transformation are cheaper are forming, linked to climate improvement compared to the previous year, without the climate phenomena El Niño and La Niña, says André Braz, economist at the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (Ibre/FGV).
According to him, who is also coordinator of the FGV Weekly Consumer Price Index (IPC-S)If the prices of these products are more behaved, IPCA inflation should end the year close to 4.9%. Otherwise, it may be between 5.4% and 5.5%, which is today.
According to the food classification performed by the BC (Central Bank), there are three groups: fresh, those who undergo no transformation, such as eggs, tubers, fruits and vegetables; Semi -elaborate, which already have a certain degree of transformation, for example, cattle, pigs, milk and cereals; and industrialized, whose degree of transformation is larger and includes a wide range of products.
Industrialized foods have the largest weight within the Food inflation at homewith 53% contribution, while semi -elaborate participate with 32% and fresh with 15%.
Visibility on industrialized food prices, however, is impaired by the fact that production costs, which represent just over half the value of food products, are influenced by components subject to strong variations, such as the exchange and oil.
According to the economist João Fernandes, by manager Quantitas, the exchange rate is today the variable that weighs the most in this account. In the current scenario, the global market movement favors emerging currencies, but continues to mostly dependent on external factors.
Fernandes maintains the projection for the 2025 IPCA by 5.2%, with bassist bias due to the recent appreciation of the real before the dollar.
Guilherme Moreira, coordinator of Consumer Price Index of the Institute of Economic Research Foundation (IPC-Fipe)comments that the expectation is to continue reversing the discharge of food prices in general until July, but that in the semi -elaborate and industrialized the change will be slower.
“The dynamics of these prices are a little different. While fresh are more volatile, these foods take longer to climb and fall,” he details.
Fernandes foresees slowdown in industrialized food inflation between June and July as a reflection on wholesale prices – something that already appears in price rates and data from institutions such as the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (CEPEA).
According to the economist, the worst moment of home food inflation on the IPCA was recorded in November 2024.
“In the accumulated in 12 months of that period, we saw up 8.4%. Now, in the accumulated until May 2025, we see an inflation of 7.2%,” says Fernandes.
According to him, by this metric, inflation will not give in much in the short term, but the movement will be more noticeable on the margin.
Among the foods that reduced the discharge since then, Fernandes highlights the Long Life Milk and Cereals, such as Rice and Beans.
On the other hand, they follow the prices pressed the ground coffee, soluble coffee and beefwhich may also present a new price rise by the end of the year.
Within home feeding, coffee has a weight of 4.4%, long life milk of 4.8%, cereals of 5.2%and meats of 17.3%.
His expectation is that in June the IPCA register 0.50% deflation in home feed, returning to the positive land in July, with a plan of 0.10%. In August, however, the movement is still uncertain.
For now, the manager estimates positive variation of 0.10%. The economist foresees food inflation of 6.3% in 2025 and 4.9% in 2026.
