It reaches the internal this Sunday (6) facing at least two structural challenges: the aging of its affiliates and the concentration of its power in state governments in the Northeast.
People up to 34 years old represent only 8.32% of affiliates, according to a survey by Sheet with data from the TSE (Superior Electoral Court). In 2010, this age group made up 25.46% of petist militants – a reduction of 17.14 percentage points in 14 years. In the same period, the whole of Brazilian parties lost about 10 percentage points of affiliates in this stratum, ranging from 19.31% to 9.36%.
The party has four candidacies for the command of the national board: the favorite, and supported by the president; Valter Pomar, Romênio Pereira and Federal Deputy Rui Falcão (SP).
The dispute takes place as a party of Lula, even though he had regained the Planalto Palace, operates with a party structure deeply transformed by almost a decade of crisis.
The leaders, on the other hand, were not renewed to follow and respond to such changes, according to Marco Antônio Teixeira, political scientist and professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV).
“The PT certainly goes through a process of aging, and this is perceived because the main names of the party today are still those who participated in the very foundation of the PT. At that time, they were ‘the young’ of the legend,” he says.
Data show that the subtitle election will have 4.3% of candidates under 30 – state and municipal commands will also be chosen on Sunday.
The PL, party of Jair Bolsonaro (PL), which houses figures such as federal deputy Nikolas Ferreira, had a breath and, from 2022 to 2024, raised the slice of members under 34 years from 7.48% to 9.1%.
Operation Lava Jato marks a watershed in the PT’s trajectory. Between 2014 and 2018, the party lost the presidency with the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff, saw its federal bench fall from 68 to 56 deputies – the smallest since 1998 – and lost the government of Minas Gerais, the second most populous state in the country.
The fall was even more significant considering that the PT had reached its record of 91 federal deputies in 2002, in the first year of Lula government.
Lula’s return to the presidency was a victory, but considering the state governments, the caption, which has already ruled 23.7% of the Brazilian population, today manages 14.6%, with no state outside the Northeast.
Even with the return of the petista to the Planalto Palace, the federal bench recovered only partially, with 67 deputies in 2022. Fortaleza is the only capital with mayor of the PT: Evandro Leitão, a PDT egress politician.
“Lava Jato’s paradise was strong and the PT will feel it for a long time, especially because it has not been renewed,” says Teixeira.
In Congress, recent episodes expose the difficulty with shrinkage of the bench. In voting on the increase in IOF, and voted against the government.
The 383 votes in favor of the overthrow of Lula’s decrees had more than half of PP votes (which gave 100%of their votes against Lula), União Brasil (97%of the bench), Republicans (95%), MDB (93%) and PSD (60%).
Among the leftist parties, 94% of the PDT bench voted against the government. At Alckmin’s PSB, the rebellion was 60%.
Lula’s succession when the petista leaves politics remains unknown. There is no consensus around figures already quoted to take the place, such as the Finance Minister ,.
The aging of the party allowed the founding generation to maintain control over the party machine, blocking genuine renewals, according to FGV professor.
“Thinking about the future post slala is urgent, but when you see new leaders, who are it? [vereadora] Luna Zarattini, here in São Paulo, who comes from a family of politicians [neta do ex-deputado Ricardo Zarattini (1935-2017)]. O [vereador de Belo Horizonte] Pedro Rousseff, Dilma’s nephew, “he says.
“The PT had difficulty entering what the youth today is dialoguing, which are social networks, Tiktoks, Instagram,” says Teixeira.
He points out that, in the meantime, groups such as the Free Brazil Movement (MBL) and collectives such as the black movement capture the attention of youngest with specific guidelines.
“The movements on the left have more this feature of working with identities, while the most right movements are more thematic. The debate of entrepreneurship, for example, which today takes very young, mainly because of the work with application, is not a debate led by the PT,” says the professor.
