Lula faces new tests in Congress after IOF crisis – 07/07/2025 – Power

by Andrea
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The president (PT) will face new tests in Congress this week, amid the crisis with parliamentarians around the overthrow of decrees that changed the tax rates (tax on financial operations).

The government will have votes considered sensitive to the president’s popularity recovery project and will need to start a process of rapprochement with the chamber and the shakes after the relationship with (Republicans-PB) and (-AP).

In the House, two projects considered priority by the Executive must be analyzed by the deputies: the PEC (proposal to amend the Constitution) of public security must be voted at the CCJ (Constitution and Justice Commission) on Wednesday (9), and the report of the project that expands the exemption from those who earn up to R $ 5,000 per month must be presented in a special committee.

The two themes will serve as a test to measure the temperature between the two powers, which go through the moment of greater tension since the beginning of the Lula 3 government.

As he showed, Lula signaled interlocutors that he would like to talk to Motta before the 15th, when one should occur about the increase in IOF, by determination of the minister, the (Federal Supreme Court).

There is no date yet for the meeting, and government interlocutors say this will depend on the way the congress summit will return to work this week. Lula will return to Brasilia on the night of Monday (7).

In the case of Security PEC, the reading of the report of Deputy Mendonça Filho (União Brasil-PE) is scheduled for Wednesday, and the expectation of him and the president of the CCJ, Paulo Azi (União Brasil-BA) is that the procedure is not postponed.

Motta was warned that the opinion would enter the agenda and endorse, according to reports. He will meet with Mendonça Filho, Azi and leaders to discuss the topic. “Public security is today the main problem of the country, not just the government’s agenda. [Motta] Think like me, “Azi told Sheet.

Mendonça said that Motta asked for speed to look from the beginning. “I don’t think it changes the calendar, it is a priority issue of society, not a government agenda,” he said.

Both petistas and government members, however, say the impact of discomfort on voting and changes that Mendonça Filho intends to make on the text are still uncertain. Right aligned on security issues, the center can make it difficult for the government to make life.

The PEC rapporteur, who opposes the Lula administration, signaled in his speeches that he will make changes to the text. He has said that it is not possible to combat organized crime from Brasilia, showing concern about the centralization of the coordination of public security by the federal government.

There is a consensus between legislature and executive that the theme of security will be one of the main campaign next year, then parliamentarians want to legislate on the subject, although from a distinct perspective from the federal government. With the modifications proposed by the rapporteur, the text must be approved and go to a special committee.

On another front, governors expect the former mayor (-Al), rapporteur of the income tax project, present his opinion this week as well, as it has been signaling.

Lira had initially promised to present the text in June, the same week that Congress overthrew IOF’s decrees. The coordinated action between the summits of the two houses, resulting in the defeat of the government, created an environment that led to the postponement of reading the IR report.

The exemption of for monthly and compensation measures are part of the main bet of the Planalto Palace to recover the president’s popularity for the election of 2026.

The projects that will be discussed in Congress in the coming days represent a test for the Lula administration, after the most important defeat it had in its third government. If the votes are postponed, they will only have another week to occur before the July recess.

Governors have been trying to explore conflict with Congress. They have flooded their social networks with the rhetoric of the struggle between the poor and the rich, a scenario in which the President of the Republic would be shock against powerful business and financial interests.

In the discourse led by the Planalto and disseminated by aligned profiles, the campaign is largely formed by videos produced by artificial intelligence and has as its motto the defense of “BBB taxation”, referring to “billionaires, bets and benches” – grues that would form a powerful lobby in partnership with centrão and the right in the legislature.

Although he won () in the 2022 elections, the president saw Congress be dominated by center and right parties.

Initially, Lula distributed nine ministries between União Brasil, PSD and MDB. Then it expanded the space and incorporated PP and increasing the number of folders controlled by this block to 11.

Nevertheless, these parties impose recurring defeats on the government in Congress, house open opposition nuclei and maintain ties with pockets. In addition, they flirt with an alternative candidacy for Lula in 2026 – the favorite name today is that of the governor of São Paulo, Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicans).

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