The concern of the National Electric System Operator (ONS) with the service of the Electric Power Ponta in the country was worsened in the Plan of Energy Operation (PEN) for the period 2025-2029, the ONS planning director Alexandre Zucurato told Estadão/Broadcast.
According to him, it is possible that this year is recommended to the government to use summer time to get at least 2 more Gigawatts (GW) of reinforcement in the National Interconnected System (SIN). The decision needs to be made in August, as the measure requires three months in advance to be implemented.
“Pen looks if the amount of generation available, in the broad sense, if the resources we have meet the consumption of Brazil. PEN 2025-2029 confirmed last year’s diagnosis and showed aggravation of power deficit,” said Zucurato. “Eventually, we can recommend daylight saving time as essential.”
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According to him, as this year there was no auction, “despite the recommendation made since 2021 to be held annual auctions”, in addition to the measures already taken -such as the entry of projects of the 2021 capacity reserve auction (LRCAP) and higher use of thermal -the ONS could also import 2.5 GW of energy from neighboring countries.
“What we observe, and this is a repeat of the conclusions that we have arrived since the Pen of 2021, is that we are observing that the system is over -made of energy, but by 2021 we saw at the end of the horizon the violation of the power criterion. But, finally, the future came.
Another measure adopted to avoid problems in SIN, the response of demand for the (consumer) tip service, will have its volume known on July 16, when the load reductions of large consumers will be hired. Last year, this instrument generated only 100 megawatts (MW) of economics. “The consumer offers the reduction of their consumption at certain times of the day upon payment of compensation,” he explained.
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Zucrarato pointed out that energy generation has really grown in the country, but pulled by solar energy, which, of course, does not produce at night and does not guarantee power. “The MMGD (mini and solar distributed microgeneration) on PEN 2025-29 leaves 35 GW to 64 GW. Centralized 16.5 GW solar to 24 GW and the wind from 32.5 GW to 36 GW,” he said.
“So, basically, this explains all this growth from 232 GW to 268 GW at SIN between 2025 and 2029, there are almost 40 GW of Solar, which does not serve the night tip,” he said. “And that’s where we see that the criterion of care of the tip, which was no longer attended, is less answered yet. That is, this structural deficit deepens,” he said.
For Zucrarato, if the rains delay again this year, the most critical months will be October and November, and the solution will be to perform the capacity reserve auction (LRCAP) as soon as possible in 2026. “PEN’s main message is, repeating what we saw last year, we are not meeting the power criteria and the situation worsened by the expected increase. There is no time to make any auction to hire power to 2025. The next window of need seen in the dark is next year, ”he explained.
